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Baxalta worries hit strong Shire

Following a strong set of financial results, the outlook is looking good for Shire
February 12, 2016

Speciality pharma group Shire (SHP) beat consensus fourth-quarter sales forecasts to deliver a strong set of full-year results. Chief executive Flemming Ornskov called the reported period "a standout year in Shire's history", bookended by revenue-enhancing acquisitions.

IC TIP: Buy at 3611p

Top-line growth was driven by a strong performance from existing products, particularly attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) drug Vyvanse, sales of which were boosted thanks to an additional US approval for the drug to treat binge-eating disorders. The group also benefited from $58m (£40m) of sales from rare diseases company NPS Pharmaceuticals, which was acquired last February.

However, like fellow UK pharma companies GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) and AstraZeneca (AZN), Shire's sales were dented by currency pressures from the US and the fact that several products are due to lose their exclusivity rights. It was ADHD drug Intuniv that took the hit when it lost patent protection last year, giving rise to cheaper, generic copies of the product.

Management has high hopes for FY2016, though, with product sales expected to increase by up to 14 per cent - especially now the Dyax acquisition has completed. Concerns were raised over the possible overlap of products between Dyax and Shire, but regulators appear to have given the deal the green light.

The market clearly still has concerns regarding the acquisition of Baxalta, however. The target company is focused on multiple therapy fields, but analysts have raised questions over the level of competition in the market for its existing products. Management doesn't see it that way, of course, and is confident the Baxalta acquisition will help the enlarged group meet its target of $20bn sales by 2020. The deal is expected to be completed by the middle of 2016 and has been seen as a clear statement by Shire that the group is a buyer and no longer a target itself.

Prior to these results, analysts at UBS were expecting 2016 earnings of 421ȼ, increasing to 502ȼ in 2017.

 

SHIRE (SHP)
ORD PRICE:3,611pMARKET VALUE:£21.4bn
TOUCH:3,607-3,613p12-MONTH HIGH:5,870pLOW: 3,423p
DIVIDEND YIELD:0.5%PE RATIO:23
NET ASSET VALUE:1659ȼ*NET DEBT:15%

Year to 31 DecTurnover ($bn)Pre-tax profit ($bn)Earnings per share (ȼ)Dividend per share (ȼ)
20114.261.0915715.10
20124.531.0114517.30
20134.931.6925719.93
20146.023.3456022.92
20156.421.3922726.37
% change+7-58-59+15

Ex-div: 10 Mar

Payment: 12 Apr

*Includes intangible assets of $13.3bn, or 2,248ȼ a share

£1 = $1.44