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Travel industry in flux as sterling's weakness pushes airlines off course

The weak pound has the potential to dampen travel demand - something the market seems concerned about given steep share price falls
June 30, 2016

Travel demand can overcome the negative impact on it of sterling's enormous drop to a 30-year low on the back of the EU referendum, which quickly clipped airline stocks' wings.

A steep fall in the pound versus other major currencies - particularly the dollar and the euro - instantly made it more expensive for holidaymakers in some of their favoured destinations and it took just a matter of hours after the referendum result for British Airways owner International Consolidated Airlines (IAG) to issue a profit warning.

Broker Liberum also downgraded the stock to hold from buy and similarly moved budget rival easyJet (EZJ) as it too warned on profit for this full year - albeit Brexit being only one of many more tangible reasons, such as French air strikes and weather-induced cancellations.

But the impact of currency is not necessarily so straightforward. Invesco Perpetual UK equity fund manager Martin Walker, said he had increased his holdings in airline stocks post-Brexit given the "outstanding value".

He said the impact on IAG will largely be translational, because it reports in euros, while easyJet - as the company acknowledged in its profit warning - will see costs rise. What would have been a benefit of its portion of earnings that are in euros being translated into a weaker pound won't have an effect in the short term because its revenues have been booked prior to the devaluation.

"I view this as being similar to geopolitical events like terrorism or a strike," he said. "It will have a temporary effect and we will come through the other side and booking patterns will normalise."

Rob Byde, transport analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald, agreed that travel demand was "remarkably resilient" and that as long as the economy muddled through consumers would merely trade down.

Ken Odeluga, market analyst at City Index, was more bearish on the pound's impact on consumer-facing stocks such as the airlines.

"A fall in sterling translates directly to a clip in travel sentiment," he said. "Consumers will be aware that they need to make their money stretch further. That could have implications in terms of whether people are willing to spend money on a holiday."

He said tour operator Tui AG (TUI) had made moves towards a "higher bracket" customer, whom he said was willing to spend more, which could stand it in better stead than its most similar rival, Thomas Cook (TCG).

Irish-registered carrier Ryanair (RYA) could see a hit in its reported euro earnings but it has 95 per cent of its FY2017 fuel hedged, which should help reduce fuel costs.