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Informa exhibits little change

Informa has made some notable gains, but has plenty of restructuring left to do
February 21, 2014

Global technological shifts and the economic downturn have taken their toll on Informa (INF). Although the corporate information, events and publishing group has shed loss-making businesses and made inroads into emerging markets, it still faces significant challenges.

IC TIP: Hold at 530pp

Informa continued its shift towards larger events, which command higher margins. The 275 or so larger events it held last year delivered over 60 per cent of revenues in the events division, up from 250 driving 44 per cent in 2012. It also expanded globally, buying a majority stake in Baiwen, which organises the largest annual beauty trade fair in mainland China. Divisional operating profits consequently rose 14 per cent.

Profits were also up in Informa’s academic publishing business, by 4 per cent. But they declined at its business intelligence unit for the second year in a row, this time by almost 10 per cent. Moreover, major exhibitions in Brazil and the UK could prove less profitable this year than in the past, due to World Cup disruptions and print-industry pressures respectively. Company management is another concern - a new chief executive took the reins this year and the search for a replacement chief financial officer is entering its third month.

Analysts at Numis Securities expect adjusted pre-tax profits of £315m in 2014, giving adjusted EPS of 40.6p - little changed from £310m and 40p last year.

INFORMA (INF)
ORD PRICE:530pMARKET VALUE:£3.2bn
TOUCH:529-530p12-MONTH HIGH:577pLOW: 466p
DIVIDEND YIELD:3.6%PE RATIO:31
NET ASSET VALUE:197p*NET DEBT:66%

Year to 31 DecTurnover (£bn)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
20091.229718.811.5
20101.2312516.514.0
20111.288912.516.8
2012 (restated)1.117015.618.5
20131.1311617.118.9
% change+2+65+10+2

Ex-div: 30 Apr

Payment: 27 May

*Includes intangible assets of £2.4bn, or 394p a share