In the eurozone, we could see purchasing managers report a small rise in activity, as well as increases in Germany's Ifo survey and the National Bank of Belgium's business climate indicator. Nevertheless, all this would still point to GDP growth of only around 1 per cent annualised.
However, the news might not all be good. Monetary statistics on Thursday should be closely watched. Last month saw a big drop in bank lending to companies, reversing this year's tendency for it to rise. A repeat of that would raise concerns that a renewed lack of willingness or ability of companies to borrow could hold back growth. The figures will probably also show a rise in short-term bank deposits but a fall in longer-term ones. Optimists might see this as a sign that people are getting ready to spend more. Pessimists will see it as an indication that savers don't trust banks sufficiently to tie up their cash with them.
In the US, we could see some good news. Third-quarter GDP growth might be revised up a little from the first estimate of annualised 1.5 per cent growth; durable goods orders could see a rise after falls in the last two months; and the S&P Case-Shiller index and sales of both new and existing houses could show that the housing market is improving steadily. Nevertheless, all this would only be consistent with GDP growth of less than 2 per cent, which is significantly less than the 3.3 per cent average recorded in the 50 years to 2007.
In the UK, the second estimate of GDP should confirm that the economy grew by 0.5 per cent in the third quarter. However, this growth is likely to be very much driven by consumer spending. Net exports will have subtracted from GDP, and business investment probably added less than forecasters had expected a few months ago. What's more, this pattern is likely to have continued into Q4: the CBI is likely to say on Tuesday that retail sales were strong in early November, while GfK could report on Thursday that consumer confidence, although perhaps lower than in the summer, is still high.
One threat to consumer spending, however, comes from the government's plan to cut tax credits next year. We'll see in Wednesday's Autumn Statement how the chancellor has revised those plans since July. Overall, he'll remind us that austerity will continue for a few more years.
