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Marston's shifts gears

Marston's insists that losing the beer tie will not have a material impact on profits.
November 28, 2014

As Westminster prepares to remove the beer tie that forces tenants to buy booze from their landlords, bosses at Marston's (MARS) - one such landlord - insist that a strategy of transferring the estate into either managed ownership or a franchise system has left the group with "barely any" exposure to the mooted legislation. The remaining leased estate accounts for just 15 per cent of group profits, 50 per cent of which is from 'dry' (non-beer) rents.

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That transformation strategy started more than a year ago and is expected to last one more year: chief financial officer Andrew Andrea says pre-tax profits will recover by the end of the current financial year. Last year, reported losses were the result of restructuring costs, including substantial losses on the disposal of under-performing pubs. Last year it got rid of 388 pubs, pocketing £144m, and a further 200 sites will be sold this year. Management hope to fetch a further £70m from future property sales.

This hasn't come completely at the expense of new openings - specifically new-builds. Last year Marston's opened 27 new-build pub-restaurants, marking its 100th new-build site with a launch in Dumfries, Scotland. But overall Marston's estate is shrinking, comprising 1,689 sites in early October, compared with 2,050 the year before.

What's left performed well over the course of the year. It seems chief executive Ralph Findlay's "F-plan" (females, families, forty-somethings and food) is paying off. Like-for-like sales in the Destination and Premium category rose 3 per cent, and the Taverns division also did well, reporting like-for-like sales growth of 2 per cent across its managed and franchised pubs.

This momentum has continued into the new financial year. Like-for-like sales from the Destination and Premium and Tavern estates are up 2 per cent, and the brewing business is in robust health after the Hobgoblin brand reported record Halloween sales.

Analysts at Numis expect pre-tax profits of £91.8m for the current financial year, giving EPS of 12.8p - up from £83m and 11.6p respectively.

MARSTON'S (MARS)
ORD PRICE:146pMARKET VALUE:£837m
TOUCH:146-146p12-MONTH HIGH:160pLOW: 135p
DIVIDEND YIELD:4.6%PE RATIO:na
NET ASSET VALUE:132p*NET DEBT:159%

Year to 4 OctTurnover (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
2010651538.35.8
20116828112.15.8
2012720-135-19.46.1
20137836810.06.4
2014815-59-8.96.7
% change+4--+5

Ex-div: 18 Dec

Payment: 2 Feb

*Includes intangible assets of £249m, or 44p a share