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Tullow cans final dividend

A flurry of impairments in the wake of the falling oil price forced Tullow Oil to report its first loss in 15 years.
February 11, 2015

Tullow Oil (TLW) suspended its final dividend after reporting a full-year operating loss of $2.0bn (£1.2bn) on the back of $2.4bn in write-downs. The non-cash charges were principally linked to the ongoing slump in crude oil prices, which also reduced the Irish driller's operating cash-flows by a fifth. Matters weren't helped by an 11 per cent reduction in Tullow's production volumes.

IC TIP: Hold at 405p

The market had to some extent priced in the bad news, as the charges were heavily foreshadowed in a January trading update. But they still underline the company's exposure to falling crude prices. Tullow is an exploration and production pure-play, without mid- and downstream operations such as marketing and refining that can partially offset the effects of a deteriorating market. Even if you disregard the write-downs (together with a $482m loss on disposal), Tullow's gross profits were still down 27 per cent.

In common with industry peers, Tullow is now focused on reducing its capital commitments and exploiting its higher-margin assets. The company revealed that it is moving ahead with a major internal review designed to identify substantial long-term cost savings. Tullow's management are confident of implementing savings of $500m over the next three years, including a reduction in headcount across the group. Capital expenditure in 2015 will be reduced by around $100m from last year's outlay of $2bn.

Exploration and appraisal budgets have also been pared back for basin-opening wells in Kenya, Norway and Suriname. But Tullow certainly isn't pulling back the reins on its Ten project in Ghana, which is on track to increase the group's net West African oil production to over 100,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd) by the end of 2016. To put that in context, Tullow’s total net production for last year was 75,200 bopd.

Tullow's realised oil price (post hedging) came in at $97.50 a barrel, down from $105.70 in 2013. We expect further contraction in the first half of this year, although around 60 per cent of Tullow's 2015 oil sales are currently hedged, with an average floor price of around $86 per barrel. Arrangements are also in place for 2016, 2017 and 2018.

Goodbody anticipates adjusted EPS for 2015 of 11.2 cents.

TULLOW OIL (TLW)
ORD PRICE:405pMARKET VALUE:£3.7bn
TOUCH:405-406p12M HIGH / LOW:919p345p
DIVIDEND YIELD:1.0%PE RATIO:NA
NET ASSET VALUE:439¢*NET DEBT:77%

Year to 31 DecTurnover ($bn)Pre-tax profit ($bn)Earnings per share (¢)Dividend per share (p)
20101.10.28.16
20112.31.172.512
20122.31.168.812
20132.60.318.612
20142.2-2.0-170.94
% change-16---67

Ex-div:-

Payment:-

£1 = $1.53. *Includes intangible assets of $3.9bn, or 426¢ a share