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Next Fifteen fights back

RESULTS: After sorting out its Bite agency, Next Fifteen is in recovery mode, and the shares look cheap
November 5, 2013

Shares in Next Fifteen Communications (NFC) slumped at the end of last month after the digital communications group warned investors to expect a profit shortfall in these results. Indeed, as a result of audit adjustments relating to the group's Bite agency, which also led to a £1.95m impairment charge, finance director David Dewhurst decided to step down.

IC TIP: Buy at 80p

However, issues there should not detract from the progress Next Fifteen has made towards changing the business model to embrace advances in digital communications. Indeed, four of its agencies - Text 100, M Booth, Outcast and Blueshirt - generated record revenue that boosted group revenue to an all-time high. Growth was most pronounced in the US operations where revenues rose by 17 per cent in the second half to account for 55 per cent of group turnover. Moreover, after adjusting for one-off items, pre-tax profits declined from £9.6m to £7.7m, a far better outcome than analysts at Canaccord had expected.

Importantly, chief executive Tim Dyson believes that the accounting problems at Bite have now been addressed, and notes that trading in the new financial year has started strongly, boosted by new work from clients like J Sainsbury and HBO. The £1.6m of the profit decline in Bite's German and UK operations last year should be recoverable, which explains why Canaccord is forecasting a recovery in underlying pre-tax profits to £9.7m, giving EPS of 10.6p (up from £7.7m and 6.6p in fiscal 2013).

NEXT FIFTEEN COMMUNICATIONS (NFC)
ORD PRICE:80pMARKET VALUE:£48m
TOUCH:77-80p12-MONTH HIGH:115pLOW: 71p
DIVIDEND YIELD:3.2%PE RATIO:143
NET ASSET VALUE:60p*NET DEBT:5%

Year to 31 JulTurnover (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
200965.43.163.701.70
201072.35.306.801.85
201186.07.539.102.05
201291.65.966.852.30
201396.12.090.562.55
% change+5-65-92+11

Ex-div: 8 Jan

Payment: 7 Feb

*Includes intangible assets of £41m, or 69p a share