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Cloudy skies for BSkyB

BSkyB's on-demand services are thriving, but its rivalry with BT makes for an uncertain future
January 31, 2014

Talk of takeovers, new competitive threats and the loss of live broadcasting rights did little to disrupt the half-year performance of British Sky Broadcasting (BSY). Sky-high sales of on-demand services and Sky+HD boxes helped BSkyB boost its revenues to £3.75bn for the six months ending December, an 8 per cent gain over the previous year.

IC TIP: Hold at 879p

Investment and marketing costs rose, however, as the company continued to revamp its product offerings and entice new customers. The right to screen Premier League football matches cost £108m more than in 2012 - though the company says that's a one-off uplift. Adjusted operating profit consequently fell 8 per cent year-on-year.

Much of the uncertainty shrouding BSkyB revolves around football. The loss of the Champions League live broadcast rights for three seasons starting in 2015 to BT Group (BT.A) was a blow, causing investors to wipe £1bn off the group's market capitalisation. But it may have also revived BSkyB's appeal as a takeover target.

21st Century Fox owner Rupert Murdoch, who has a 39 per cent stake in BSkyB and tried to take it over in 2011, still seems the most likely buyer. He already owns Sky Italia and has a controlling stake in Sky Deutschland, so acquiring BSkyB could allow the creation of "Sky Europe". A broadcasting business of that size would have more clout in bidding for sports rights, and could also invest significant resources in new streaming services to better compete with Netflix and Amazon.

Still, a takeover may not happen soon. BSkyB’s value could dive if it fluffs the Premier League rights auction scheduled for early 2015. For now, the group may pursue other strategies to cement its dominant market position. It could cut a deal with Vodafone (VOD) for access to the carrier’s network, allowing it to package mobile contracts with its other services. Alternatively, it could craft a tension-diffusing wholesale agreement with BT before the auction, allowing each to include the other’s channels in its TV packages.

Analysts at Numis forecast full-year pre-tax profits of £1.18bn, giving EPS of 58.1p (from £1.26bn and 59.1p).

BRITISH SKY BROADCASTING (BSY)

ORD PRICE:879pMARKET VALUE:£13.9bn
TOUCH:879-879p12-MONTH HIGH:951p762p
DIVIDEND YIELD:3.5%PE RATIO:15
NET ASSET VALUE:64p*NEBT DEBT:142%

Half-year to 31 DecTurnover (£bn)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
20123.5364229.711.0
20133.7652726.212.0
% change+7-18-12+9

Ex-div: 26 Mar

Payment: 22 Apr

*Includes intangibles of £1.78bn or 112p per share