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Aberdeen profits down amid fund outflows

Investor sentiment continues to draw business away from the emerging markets-exposed asset manager
November 29, 2016

The start of this year marked a turning point in sentiment towards emerging markets, with emerging market stocks outperforming their global peers. While any recovery is tentative, greater confidence in Chinese economic growth, improving commodity prices and favourable US monetary policy have all pushed in the same direction. However, clients of Aberdeen Asset Management (ADN) have been more cautious, judging by the asset manager's latest full-year results.

IC TIP: Hold at 282.6p

The group reported net outflows across all its asset classes during the 12 months to September, totalling £32.8bn. Admittedly, this was slightly lower than the £33.9bn outflow suffered in the previous year. A positive market performance generated gains of £32.4bn, compared with a loss of £10.7bn in FY2015. This pushed total assets under management back past the £300bn mark at the year-end.

Nevertheless, a reduction in business meant net management fees fell below £1bn, from almost £1.15bn in the previous year, reducing net revenue. Outflows from higher-margin emerging market equities, debt and high-yield products and inflows into money market funds mean the blended fee rate also fell to below 34 basis points. The group also suffered £0.8bn in net outflows from property due to a reduced appetite for UK assets after the EU referendum.

However, recently appointed chairman Simon Troughton is optimistic about the growth potential in multi-asset funds, which were made a separate asset class during the year. Aberdeen grew the total managed here for insurance, pension and wealth clients in multi-asset funds to almost £90bn, due to investment gains. However, the company is developing more multi-asset products as it tries to diversify its business lines. Management also started to implement its cost efficiency programme, which reduced full-year operating costs by £28m. However the weakness of sterling pushed up overseas costs, offsetting this reduction.

Analysts at Peel Hunt expect adjusted pre-tax profits of £396m during the 12 months to September 2017, leading to EPS of 24p. This is up from £353m and 21p, respectively, in FY2016.

ABERDEEN ASSET MANAGEMENT (ADN)

ORD PRICE:282.6pMARKET VALUE:£3.72bn
TOUCH:282.5-282.8p12-MONTH HIGH:354pLOW: 209p
DIVIDEND YIELD:6.9%PE RATIO:22
NET ASSET VALUE:128pNET CASH:£549m

Year to 30 SepTurnover (£bn)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
20121.0527018.911.5
20131.3139027.216
20141.2935523.518
20151.3235422.319.5
20161.1122212.819.5
% change-16-37-42 

Ex-div: 8 Dec

Payment: 9 Feb

*Includes intangible assets of £1.5bn, or 113p a share