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Dump Petropavlovsk

RESULTS: The price of gold may be on the rise, but the investment prospects for Russian gold miner Petropavlovsk are definitely on the wane
August 29, 2013

Shares in gold miner Petropavlovsk (POG) plunged 17 per cent following the release of these abysmal half-year results. The lower gold price forced the debt-laden Russian gold producer to book $691m (£443m) of impairment charges - making Petropavlovsk the latest miner to announce huge write-downs this year.

IC TIP: Sell at 107p

The company's early hedging strategy proved to be a modest success, earning Petropavlovsk an additional $25m in revenues during the period. Overall, though, there were probably more negatives than positives on an operating level.

Gold production increased 6 per cent year on year to 294,700 ounces, yet an astounding 54 per cent hike in average cash costs to $1,136 an ounce slashed cash profits by a half to $102m. Chairman Peter Hambro says "costs are expected to be lower in the second half as grades will be higher and stripping volumes reduced" - and they better had be. The company desperately needs to start earning money to pay down its substantial debts, which amounted to $1.15bn as of 30 June.

Analysts from JPMorgan Cazenove say: "At or around current gold prices we continue to forecast a covenant breach and funding gap for POG's $380m convertible [bond] at year-end 2014". They estimate Petropavlovsk's net present value at 200p a share, but set a price target of just 70p - reflecting their "concerns for recapitalisation risk in 2014".

PETROPAVLOVSK (POG)

ORD PRICE:107pMARKET VALUE:£211m
TOUCH:107-108p12-MONTH HIGH:464pLOW: 63p
DIVIDEND YIELD:6.5%PE RATIO:na
NET ASSET VALUE:436¢NET DEBT:103%

Half-year to 30 JunTurnover ($m)Pre-tax profit ($m)Earnings per share (¢)Dividend per share (p)
201254749-85.0
2013597-768-357nil
% change+9---

£1=$1.56