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Shire storms ahead

Shire's 2014 was marked by a failed takeover bid, but its prospects as a standalone company are solid.
February 13, 2015

Shire (SHP) chief executive Flemming Ornskov called 2014 a "transformative year" on a call with journalists. He was referring to a slew of acquisitions and a record $5.8bn (£3.8bn) in product sales - up 23 per cent at constant currencies. But his comments may resonate most with those investors who watched US group AbbVie (ABBV) try - and fail - to take over the speciality pharma group last October.

IC TIP: Hold at 4,861p

Mr Ornskov is keen to move on from the AbbVie deal. He says Shire's future product pipeline is "the strongest [it's] ever been", with more than 20 new medicines in the works. And the company's longstanding hyperactivity drug Vyvanse could also enjoy a new lease of life in 2015; US regulators have cleared the drug to treat binge-eating disorder. Mr Ornskov said this could boost sales by $300m.

Shire is still building the business through acquisitions, too. Last year's ViroPharma deal added $538m to group sales, primarily from hereditary angioedema treatment Cinryze, which brought in $503m.

Excluding the products acquired with ViroPharma, group product sales rose 11 per cent. This was driven by an 18 per cent increase in Vyvanse sales to $1.45bn as well as a 55 per cent increase in sales of alternative hereditary angioedema drug Firazyr, to $364m. Hereditary angioedema is a rare blood disease that leads to extreme swelling in different parts of the body.

The group has started 2015 in a similar fashion to last year, snapping up New Jersey-based NPS Pharmaceuticals (US:NPSP) for $5.2bn. The acquisition was mooted in May last year but was put on the back burner when AbbVie came forward with its bid. However, a $1.6bn break fee from AbbVie, together with a $5bn credit facility with Citigroup, allowed Shire to start the new year with a fresh deal. Management has included NPS in its forecast figures: at constant currencies, product sales will grow in the mid-to-high single digits this year. The slowdown reflects the loss of exclusivity on hyperactivity drug Intuniv.

Prior to these results, analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch expected EPS to grow 3.6 per cent this year to 371ȼ.

SHIRE (SHP)
ORD PRICE:5,115pMARKET VALUE:£30bn
TOUCH:5,115-5,120p12-MONTH HIGH:5,470pLOW: 2,827p
DIVIDEND YIELD:0.3%PE RATIO:14
NET ASSET VALUE:1,468ȼ*NET CASH:$2.1bn

Year to 31 DecTurnover ($bn)Pre-tax profit ($bn)Earnings per share (ȼ)Dividend per share (ȼ)
20103.120.7710813.10
20114.261.0915715.10
20124.531.0114517.33
20134.931.6925719.93
20146.023.3456022.92
% change+22+98+118+15

Ex-div: 12 Mar

Payment: 14 Apr

*Includes intangible assets of $7.41bn, or 1,255ȼ a share

£1=$1.54