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Next week's economics: June 1 - 5

Next week's economics: June 1 - 5
May 28, 2015
Next week's economics: June 1 - 5

Purchasing managers' surveys on Monday should confirm flash estimates that showed that manufacturing growth in the eurozone has hit a 13-month high, helped by the weak euro. Those surveys will also show that the services sector isn't quite so strong, but official figures on Wednesday, showing a rise in retail sales in April, should confirm that there is growth here too.

We should also see growth in US manufacturing, with the ISM reporting that activity picked up last month.

This improvement in our export markets should help boost UK output. Monday's purchasing managers' surveys are expected to show output rising here, albeit not quite at the same pace as over the winter.

Bank lending figures on Tuesday could be even more encouraging. These could show a third successive monthly pick-up in lending to companies, which might be a sign that they are finally stepping up their capital investment after seven years of paying off debt.

Consumers, though, are also borrowing. Other Bank of England figures could show that consumer credit is 7 per cent up on a year ago - a reminder that growth is, for now, still strongly consumer-led.

Mortgage lending, on the other hand, is expected to show only modest growth, with approvals flat for a second successive month. Despite this, Nationwide figures in the week could show that annual house price inflation has risen for a second successive month - albeit to only half the rate we saw last summer. This should remind us that a lack of supply is forcing up prices.

Not all countries, however, are enjoying growth. Monday's purchasing managers' surveys could show that output in China is falling. This might not be a merely cyclical downturn, but also part of a shift to a permanently slower growth rate.

Official eurozone figures on Tuesday could show that the region is pulling away from deflation. They could show that CPI inflation has turned positive for the first time in six months, thanks to the weaker euro and pick-up in oil prices.

This does not, however, imply a significant pick-up in global inflationary pressures. Friday's US employment figures could show that falling unemployment has not triggered any significant rise in wage growth; wage inflation could be just 2.2 per cent, barely up from a year ago. This would bolster economists' belief that the Fed might wait until September before raising interest rates.