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National Express steams ahead

Transport operator National Express has won new business and retained several key contracts.
February 27, 2015

National Express (NEX) reported a solid sales performance last year even as it slashed costs. This combination pushed up pre-tax profit by 7 per cent at constant exchange rates, to £145m, while free cash flow of £190m came in £40m ahead of forecasts.

IC TIP: Buy at 274p

The UK coach and bus businesses both reported higher sales and profits as passenger numbers rose and margins widened. There were several business wins, including two rail franchises in Germany, while National Express retained key contracts, namely the Essex Thameside rail franchise and a US transit line. The group has also been shortlisted for three other German contracts and started operating its new bus service in Bahrain.

Spain had a tougher year: profits edged down in the face of intense competition and industrial action. But trading picked up after the summer, and the business retained an important concession.

Anthony Vigor, the company's director of policy and external affairs, says North America offers a big opportunity. He's confident the group's yellow school-bus service - which operates across 36 states - can grow another 25-50 per cent over the next three to four years. Meanwhile, the big challenge this year is the contract renewal process in Spain.

Prior to these results, Liberum Capital was expecting pre-tax profit of £150m in 2015, giving EPS of 22p, from £145m and 23p for 2014.

NATIONAL EXPRESS (NEX)
ORD PRICE:274pMARKET VALUE:£1.4bn
TOUCH:274-275p12-MONTH HIGH:306pLOW:213
DIVIDEND YIELD:3.8%PE RATIO:24
NET ASSET VALUE:161p*NET CASH:85%

Year to 31 DecTurnover (£bn)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
20102.1340.212.06
20112.24129.019.99.5
20121.8369.811.89.75
20131.8964.411.110
20141.8766.511.610.3
% change-1+3+5+3

Ex-div:30 Apr

Payment:22 May

*Includes intangible assets of £1.18bn or 230p a share