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SABMiller hit by currency headwinds

TIP UPDATE: Weakening emerging markets currencies against the US dollar have dogged trading at beverage giant SABMiller
November 25, 2013

Declines in the South African rand, Colombian peso and Peruvian nuevo sol held back growth for beverage giant SABMiller (SAB), which makes about four-fifths of its profits in emerging markets. Net producer revenue - the group's key sales measure, which excludes sales taxes but includes its share of associates and joint ventures - rose only 1 per cent. Strip out the impact of exchange rates, however, and trading profits grew 7 per cent organically, thanks to higher pricing, cost savings and organic top-line growth of 4 per cent at constant currencies.

IC TIP: Sell at 3254p

Geographically, the maker of the Grolsch and Peroni beer brands saw decent progress across all markets apart from Europe and North America, where lager volumes fell 4 and 3 per cent respectively, partially offsetting better growth elsewhere. Group underlying lager volumes were just 1 per cent higher than in the same period last year. In Europe, the volume decline suppressed underlying trading profits by 8 per cent to $512m, while in North America profit rose 3 per cent to $478m as higher pricing and a more favourable brand mix made up for the weak volumes.

The picture in emerging markets was much rosier. Despite social unrest in Colombia and an excise duty increase in Peru, profit in Latin America grew by 10 per cent to $972m, helped by favourable pricing, higher volumes and a good performance from premium brands. Thirst for beer continued in Africa, where profit was up 16 per cent to $408m, boosted by increased capacity. Asia Pacific also had another good year, with profits 12 per cent higher at $540m, driven by Australia and China. In the latter, revenue grew 14 per cent at constant currencies, reflecting a 6 per cent rise in volumes.

Broker Numis Securities expects pre-tax profit of $5.1bn for the full year, giving EPS of 244¢ (up from $4.7bn and 237¢ in 2013)

SABMILLER (SAB)
ORD PRICE:3,254pMARKET VALUE:£52.2bn
TOUCH:3,253-3,255p12-MONTH HIGH:3,684pLOW: 2,770p
DIVIDEND YIELD:1.9%PE RATIO:25
NET ASSET VALUE:1,578¢*NET DEBT:59%

Half-year to 30 SepTurnover ($bn)Pre-tax profit ($bn)Earnings per share (¢)Dividend per share (¢)
201211.42.2699.424.0
201311.12.4310725.0
% change-3+8+8+4

Ex-div: 4 Dec

Payment: 13 Dec

£1=$1.61 *Includes intangible assets of $27.5bn or 1,711¢ a share