Good news for UK champion Jaguar Land Rover, with the seventh consecutive year of stronger sales, shifting 583,313 cars. The bad news is that 85 per cent of the ones bought in Britain were imported from abroad. This is an issue President Trump has already started addressing, strong-arming Ford to cancel construction of a new plant in Mexico and threatening to slap import tariffs on Toyota cars - even the hybrids.
Talking of which, for the first time ever more energy was produced in the UK from wind power than from coal-fired plants. Resistance to the turbines has eased as they've migrated offshore, while awareness of the need to reduce air pollution grows (Brixton Road in south London has already breached its nitrogen dioxide limit for the whole of 2017). This week we look at the long-term trends for energy prices to see if shifting consumer patterns will impact businesses.
First, what is still the most important energy source: crude oil. Brent crude futures volumes have risen steadily, quadrupling over the past decade, possibly because of the Opec cartel's erratic production and inability to work cohesively. It continues to trade at a small premium to Nymex crude, as has been the case since 2010, although nothing like the $25 (£20.56) per barrel at which it peaked in 2011 and 2012. Over the past year, prices rallied in a three-wave move, correcting almost one-third of the losses suffered since 2014. The rally should stall in the $60-$68 area early this year, then retreat slowly and trade broadly sideways between here and $40 for much of 2017.
Brent crude future
US natural gas prices also rallied in a three-step move last year, and from some of the lowest prices in a quarter of a century. We expect this corrective bounce to stall at the $4.00-$4.50 area and then drop back towards $2.00, snaking between these two levels for a year or more. Proportionately large percentage moves like these will obviously have a big impact on producers and general investment in the industry. Rallies through $6.00 are unlikely let alone matching peak gas at $15.00 per million British thermal units.
Natural gas future
Unleaded gasoline futures, introduced in the US a decade ago, have also seen volumes and especially open interest double as buyers are fairly sensitive to price increases. While the chart looks very similar to the previous two, we feel that there might be a further extension to the corrective bounce taking it up to the psychological $2.00 per gallon. Then, like the others, moving broadly sideways between there and $1.25.
Unleaded gasoline future
Coking coal futures were listed in Dalian, China, four years ago and, contrary to expectations, have seen prices soar to 1,900 yuan (£225.78) per metric tonne - and with it open interest as buyers hedge. The phenomenal rally since September might be overdone, but with so little history it's impossible to call a top.
Coking coal future
