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Hitch a ride on Ricardo

A pull-back in Ricardo's shares provides an excellent opportunity to get into this quality operator.
August 7, 2014

Not many of us can afford to buy a McLaren supercar. But shares in McLaren engine-maker Ricardo (RCDO) are within reach, particularly given they look such a bargain at the moment. The shares are almost 20 per cent below the all-time 800p high hit in March. That provides an attractive entry point into this high-quality story.

IC TIP: Buy at 655p
Tip style
Growth
Risk rating
Medium
Timescale
Long Term
Bull points
  • Record order book
  • Driven by structural trends
  • Strong cash generation and net cash position
  • McLaren work ramping up
  • Specialist skills give competitive advantage
Bear points
  • German market still challenging
  • Order book has historically grown slowly

Making transmissions for Bugatti and gears for Formula 1 cars takes a certain level of technical expertise. It's a niche market that Ricardo thrives in. In December, Ricardo announced a new multi-year engine supply agreement with McLaren. The contract is the largest ever in Ricardo's history and will generate revenue of around £40m a year from 2016. That is almost a fifth of the company's total revenue last year.

Demand for Ricardo's engineering expertise is well underpinned by structural trends in the automotive industry, specifically, the need to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and other pollutants and improve energy efficiency. Ricardo has been able to apply its skills across multiple markets including passenger cars, motorsport, rail and marine so as to reduce its reliance on any one particular segment.

A trading update last month said that the company exited its latest fiscal year to the end of June with a record order book. The McLaren contract is obviously the standout but orders are also flowing in from Ricardo's less flashy end markets. Recent wins include an engine project for a major US car maker, a US defence ground vehicle and a commercial vehicle engine programme. And prospects look good heading into the current fiscal year. Ricardo said its order pipeline is strong, particularly in Asia, with further opportunities in the final stages of negotiation.

All of which suggests that previously sluggish order intake - the order book dropped in the second half of last year - is turning a corner. There are still some softer spots. The recent trading update referenced continued challenging market conditions in Germany. But buoyant Asian and UK demand and improving trends in the US should keep the momentum going.

That growing order book bodes well for earnings. Investec expects Ricardo to report earnings per share growth of 8 per cent at the full-year results in September and to grow earnings by a further 8 per cent next year. The company's cash performance should also be solid. Ricardo's recent trading update said that its cash generation had been a touch ahead of expectations. Investec is now forecasting Ricardo's net cash pile to have hit £12.1m at the end of June, almost double where it was a year earlier.

RICARDO (RCDO)

ORD PRICE:655pMARKET VALUE:£342m
TOUCH:647-654p12-MONTH HIGH:800pLOW: 433p
DIVIDEND YIELD:2.5%PE RATIO:16
NET ASSET VALUE:187p*NET CASH:£8.2m

Year to 30 JunTurnover (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)**Earnings per share (p)**Dividend per share (p)
201119715.429.711.5
201219717.629.012.4
201323022.735.014
2014**23824.537.915.1
2015**25026.440.816.2
% change+5+8+8+7

Normal market size: 500

Matched bargain trading

Beta: 0.51

*Includes intangible assets of £41m, or 78p a share

**Investec forecasts, adjusted PTP and EPS figures