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How are sectors affected by changes in interest rates?

Academic studies suggest a link between the performance of cyclical and defensive sectors and a change in interest rates
March 18, 2016

At the end of last year, the spectre of interest rate rises loomed large. When Janet Yellen, Chair of the US Federal Reserve, raised the Fed Funds rate (the short-term lending rate - effectively the price of money - in the world's biggest economy) to 0.5 per cent in December 2015, there was talk of four further rate rises in 2016, as the central bank embarked on normalisation of monetary policy. By the time Investors Chronicle has hit the newsstands, we'll know whether Ms Yellen, as expected, has opted to slow this process and leave rates at the current level.

The Bank of England has also taken a more dovish stance than commentators might have thought six months ago; with global economic data disappointing, Governor Mark Carney et al. are anxious not to prematurely choke off the UK's recovery. With this in mind, considering which stock market sectors are most sensitive to rate rises is perhaps less pertinent than at the beginning of 2016. That said, should policy become more hawkish, for example to counteract inflation if there is a sudden recovery in the oil price, it's worth being aware of the sectors that could be most affected.

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