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Polymetal navigates currency swings

The Russian gold miner has benefited from this year's surge in gold prices, but still faces issues
March 30, 2016

Sometimes you just can't win. Despite posting a sharp swing back to profitability in 2015, Polymetal International (POLY) saw its shares shed 6 per cent on the publication of full-year results. But beneath that headline were greater sources of concern for the Russian miner. Net debt increased by 4 per cent to $1.3bn (£909m), while the volume of gold sold dropped 8 per cent - the same amount by which average gold prices declined in the year.

IC TIP: Hold at 659p

In fact, the return to profit was largely the result of less damaging foreign-exchange movements than in 2014, when the company was forced to book a $559m loss. The sharp swing in the Russian rouble and Kazakhstani tenge also resulted in an $872m negative currency translation effect in the period, and a 44 per cent drop in Polymetal's total equity. However, the depreciation of the rouble against the US dollar was good for operating costs, and meant all-in sustaining cash costs fell 18 per cent to $733 per ounce of gold equivalent, well below management guidance.

According to Bloomberg data, consensus forecasts are for pre-tax profit of $440m and EPS of 82¢ in 2016, against $374m and 67¢ last year.

POLYMETAL INTERNATIONAL (POLY)

ORD PRICE:659pMARKET VALUE:£2.8bn
TOUCH:659-660p12-MONTH HIGH:740pLOW: 408p
DIVIDEND YIELD:5.4%PE RATIO:19
NET ASSET VALUE:115¢NET DEBT:267%

Year to 31 DecTurnover ($bn)Pre-tax profit ($m)Earnings per share (¢)Dividend per share (¢)†
20111.3040979.020.0
20121.9065111081.0
20131.71-158-51.09.0
20141.69-138-53.041.0
20151.4427652.051.0
% change-15--+24

Ex-div: 5 May

Payment: 27 May

£1=$1.43 †Includes special dividend of 50¢ in 2012, 20¢ in 2014, and 30¢ in 2015.