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Strong dollar flatters Ashmore

A currency translation effect softened the blow of further outflows
September 9, 2015

Emerging-markets-focused asset manager Ashmore (ASHM) has a curious relationship with the US dollar. The greenback's strength has battered the performance of the manager's local-currency-denominated emerging market debt. This contributed towards a negative investment performance of $2.9bn (£1.9bn) among these mostly unhedged strategies.

IC TIP: Hold at 257p

But dead US presidents adorn almost 40 per cent of its cash and equivalents, and - importantly - its management fees are paid in dollars. The positive impact of this currency translation, as well as an uptick in performance fees from alternative asset strategies, helped net revenue grow 8 per cent to £283m.

Emerging markets continue to be dogged by outflows. A reduction in assets under management from $75bn to $59bn pushed constant-currency cash profits down 9 per cent to £177m. Blended debt strategies, which mix dollar-denominated, local-currency-denominated and corporate paper, suffered a net outflow of $3.2bn.

"I would like to think that the hot money that came in late 2012 and early 2013 is the capital that we have seen leave the asset class," says group finance director Tom Shippey. His implication is that the investor base is now a battle-hardened 'core' that will prove stickier. Whether or not this turns out to be the case, the manager continues to buy assets it thinks are overly hit by market sentiment. It scored some outperformance by investing in Russian government hard-currency debt, which was trading below par due to investor concerns that the debt would not be repaid.

Overall performance has deteriorated, though. Some 60 per cent of assets outperformed benchmarks over the three years to the end of June, and 81 per cent over five years to the same date. That compares with 81 per cent and 92 per cent, respectively, for the periods to end-June 2014.

Analysts at Peel Hunt did not expect to change their 2016 adjusted EPS forecast of 16.7p - down from the 19.3p achieved in 2015.

ASHMORE (ASHM)
ORD PRICE:256.6pMARKET VALUE:£1.82bn
TOUCH:256.4-256.8p12-MONTH HIGH:355pLOW: 241p
DIVIDEND YIELD:6.5%PE RATIO:13
NET ASSET VALUE:93pNET CASH:£381m

Year to 30 JuneTurnover (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
201134324628.114.5
201233323426.815
201335625830.016.1
201429417219.516.45
201526818120.316.65
% change-9+6+4+1

Ex-div: 5 Nov

Payment: 4 Dec

£1=$1.54