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Bus challenges slow Go-Ahead

Statutory numbers hit by franchise integration costs but underlying performance promising
September 4, 2015

It's been an exceptional year for rail and bus operator Go-Ahead (GOG), but good news has come with its fair share of challenges. In a joint venture with French transport group Keolis, Go-Ahead took on the Govia Thameslink Rail (GTR) franchise last September, integrating its Southern and Gatwick Express routes into the Thameslink and Great Northern networks in July after the period-end. Winning such a big contract was seen as a coup at the time - but the associated costs have also been unexpectedly high.

IC TIP: Buy at 2,338p

Overall, adjusted operating profit was slightly ahead of expectations, up 11.1 per cent to £115m. But this ignores £8.8m of integration costs linked to the transformation of GTR and a £4.9m goodwill impairment on one of its bus businesses, which hit the statutory numbers.

The group is now whipping the GTR business into shape, having invested in temporary rolling stock and launching what it called the "largest ever" driver training programme in the UK. Keith Down, group finance director, said Go-Ahead "didn't have enough drivers when it took on the franchise", but since then 100 drivers have already been brought through the year-long training process, with a further 200 following closely behind.

But the bulk of earnings come from Go-Ahead's bus division, which reported operating profit of £89m. This was up 6 per cent but slightly behind expectations. Traffic in London meant a reduction in Quality Incentive Contract revenues - payments for punctual service - while congestion in Oxford and Brighton deterred customers. Importantly, these set-backs forced management to delay its long-standing target of making bus profits of £100m to the 2016-17 financial year - a year later than planned. This probably explains why the shares fell 5 per cent on results day.

The group is also looking outside the UK for business. It installed a team in Berlin to help it grab a slice of the €9.6bn annual revenue pie available in German regional rail, while it has been invited to bid for a bus contract in Singapore.

Analysts at Liberum expect 2015 pre-tax profit of £91.2m leading to EPS of 150.7p, up from £84.9m and 148.6p.

GO-AHEAD (GOG)
ORD PRICE:2,338pMARKET VALUE:£1bn
TOUCH:2,329-2,338p12-MONTH HIGH:2,745pLOW: 2,260p
DIVIDEND YIELD:3.8%PE RATIO:19
NET ASSET VALUE:152p*NET DEBT:296%**

Year to 27 JunTurnover (£bn)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
20112.3084.814781.0
20122.4284.513081.0
20132.5763.110881.0
20142.7091.216484.5
20153.2278.712290.0
% change+19-14-26+7

Ex-div: 29 Oct

Payment: 13 Nov

*Includes intangible assets of £85m, or 197p a share

**Excludes working capital from new client contract