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DESIRE PETROLEUM (DES)

Created:
9 March 2007

26p - Oil & Gas - About once a year, the British tabloid press decides that Argentina wants a rematch over the Falklands. Cue much red, white and blue in the middle pages, and 25-year-old pictures of Royal Marines heading for Port Stanley with Union Flags flying.

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As with so many things, though, what's really behind it all is oil. But in the case of the Falklands it's only the hope of oil. The potential of the north and south Falklands basins is undeniable, and much money has been spent on seismic surveys by many companies, including Desire. Results have been promising, and it may be that there is oil in those basins, deep under the ocean.

So, even though the oil isn't likely to come into production soon, Desire's shares periodically get pumped up on the back of the Falklands assets because the potential valuations look huge. However, at the moment, the shares are on the way back down. That's because, for several years, Desire has been trying to get hold of a drill rig to find out just exactly what its licences hold. And it's had no luck. The money the company raised to that end back in 2005 sits idle on the balance sheet, earning just about enough interest to cover administrative costs.

The irony is that high oil prices aren't doing Desire any favours at all. All the speculative money that has flowed into the small oil sector over the past couple of years is being spent in a frenzy of exploration, and all the available exploration kit is booked up for the foreseeable future. The idea of sending a drill rig all the way down to the Falklands doesn't make sense for a rig operator who can turn a huge profit in home waters. So there will be no rig going to the Falklands until the oil price falls, or until rig operators build enough capacity. And that could take years. Sell.

Ord price: 26p Market value: £ 57m
Touch: 24.5-26.5p 12-month High: 49p Low: 23p
Dividend yield: nil PE ratio: 28
Net asset value: 14p* Net cash: £25m

*Including intangible assets of £6.5m, or 3p a share

Year to Turnover Pre-tax earnings dividend per
31 Dec (£m) profit (£m) per share(p) share (p)
2003 - -0.53 -0.47 nil
2004 - -0.65 -0.41 nil
2005 - 2.07 0.90 nil
% change - - - -

Market Makers: 8

Normal market size: 15,000

Beta: 0.81

Last IC view: Fairly priced, 34p, 5 May 2006

BULL POINTS

  • High oil price
  • Exploration properties look interesting

BEAR POINTS

  • No equipment to drill prospects
  • Long track record of slow progress
  • No broker research

  • Order reprints
  • Back to top

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