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Chris Dillow

Volatility's misleading message Low volatility does not mean investors are complacent. Nor does it mean it is safe to buy equities. ...

23 August 2016

Chris Dillow

About Chris Dillow

Incisive economic commentary plus thoughts on investor behaviour

Recent articles

  1. Next week's economics: Aug 30 - Sep 2

    25 August 2016

    Next week might bring evidence that Brexit-related uncertainty is hurting the UK economy, but also show that the world economy is picking up.

    Consumer credit growth is accelerating, which might be a sign that consumers anticipate better times ahead.

  2. On heterogeneity

    25 August 2016

    Companies are different. This trivial fact explains a lot of otherwise strange economic behaviour.

    "Recessionary pressures are concentrated on a relatively small number of companies."

  3. Chasing risk

    24 August 2016

    Low interest rates increase the chances of a stock market crash, by encouraging investors to take on too much risk.

    When returns on safe strategies are poor, the risk of a crash is greater because people pile into risky assets.

  4. Slightly overvalued

    23 August 2016

    One useful and underrated measure suggests that shares are slightly over-valued now.

    Shares will probably outperform cash - once one takes account of the dividend yield - but not by a great amount.

  5. Sterling's trade-off

    Sterling's trade-off

    18 August 2016

    Foreign currency protects us from financial crises - but at the expense of losing us money if the global economy recovers.

    It's easy to build portfolios that would protect us from a crisis. But such portfolios would do badly in good times, as they would be clobbered by rising yields and increased appetite for risk.

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