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Outlook uncertain at IPF

RESULTS: Micro lender International Personal Finance pulls off an impressive come-back but the uncertain economic outlook in several of its key markets makes forecasting difficult
July 23, 2010

Better credit controls and restructuring of its Hungarian operations delivered a much improved first-half performance from International Personal Finance (IPF), on admittedly weak comparisons in 2009. The sub-prime lender managed to increase its customer numbers by 7.5 per cent to 2.1m, while reducing impairments as a percentage of revenue from 36.2 to 32.1 per cent in the period. However, the recent stand-off between Hungary and the IMF and fiscal tightening in Romania emphasises the brittleness in some of the company's markets.

IC TIP: Hold at 200p

IPF's main lending market is in central Europe where pre-tax profits in Poland, Slovakia and Czech Republic rose almost 25 per cent to £34.4m. Restructuring in Hungary turned around the business from a £7m loss to a £1.5m profit after 80,000 customers were targeted for debt recovery, but the country still remains in an unstable economic shape after a series of failed debt auctions. The Romanian operation also returned to a small profit after posting a £1.9m loss last year, but the government's recent move to cut civil servants' salaries by 25 per cent adds uncertainty.

Numis Securities forecasts full-year pre-tax profits of £100m and EPS of 28.3p (2009: £61.7m/17.8p).

INTERNATIONAL PERSONAL FINANCE (IPF)

ORD PRICE:200pMARKET VALUE:£514m
TOUCH:199-200p12-MONTH HIGH:283pLOW: 80p
DIVIDEND YIELD:3.0%PE RATIO:8
NET ASSET VALUE: 98pNET DEBT:102%

Half-year to 30 JunTurnover (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
200926512.43.52.30
201030336.910.72.53
% change+14+198+204+10

Ex-div:08 Sep

Payment:08 Oct

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