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Antofagasta lowers production guidance

RESULTS: Antofagasta lowers production guidance as dividend also disappoints
August 25, 2010

Chilean copper miner Antofagasta guided its full-year copper production down to 530,000 tonnes against the 543,000 tonnes forecast at the start of the year. This reflects delays of around 30 days to the Los Pelambres project and 45-60 days to the Esperanza project following the late-February earthquake. However, the updated guidance might be bolstered by Esperanza, which is progressing well and remains on track to begin operations in the final quarter of 2010, and which might still contribute to this year's production.

IC TIP: Hold at 997p

The picture improves markedly from 2011, when copper production is expected to rise to 700,000 tonnes given a full-year's contribution from Esperanza, together with substantial by-products including 270,000 ounces of gold.

Successful exploration in the Sierra Gorda district has increased group tonnage by 25 per cent over the 2009 level to a regional total, including Esperanza, of 15.1bn tonnes of resource. The group will invest $70m (£46m) in a pre-feasibility study that could expand or extend the life of Esperanza and nearby project El Tesoro. An active exploration campaign that invested $39m in the first six months hopes to add further to the project pipeline.

Broker Evolution Securities is forecasting full-year pre-tax profits of $2.1bn and EPS of 105¢ ($1.4bn and 67.7¢ in 2009)

ANTOFAGASTA (ANTO)
ORD PRICE:997pMARKET VALUE:£9.82bn
TOUCH:996-997p12-MONTH HIGH:1,100pLOW: 700p
DIVIDEND YIELD:0.7%PE RATIO:17
NET ASSET VALUE:567¢NET CASH:$1.4bn

Half-year to 30 JunTurnover ($bn)Pre-tax profit ($m)Earnings per share (¢)Dividend per share (¢)
20091.1847723.93.4
20101.7693245.84.0
% change+49+96+92+18

Ex-div: 15 Sep

Payment: 7 Oct

£1=$1.538

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