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HSBC turns south

HSBC is ready to pay a full price for South Africa's Nedbank, and with good reason
August 25, 2010

Not much notice was taken when HSBC's chief executive, Michael Geoghegan, invented a new acronym earlier this year to describe the next wave of countries that he believes will drive global growth. He identified Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa - or CIVETS - as the next tier of emerging economies. But with Mr Geoghegan's bank now ready to dive into the last nation on that list, through HSBC's acquisition of Nedbank, perhaps his contribution deserved more attention.

IC TIP: Hold at 627p

The deal - which involves spending a rumoured £5bn building a 70 per cent stake in Nedbank, largely through buying Old Mutual's 51.5 per cent slice - would give HSBC control over South Africa's fourth-largest bank. And with a third of South Africa's exports now going to Asia - a key market for HSBC - the need for a decent South African presence looks understandable. It also demonstrates HSBC's determination to take advantage of growth in so-called south-south trade. "To support the growing flows between emerging and developed economies, we are moving the right people and skills to the right places," said Mr Geoghegan earlier this month. That strategic rationale compensates for the apparently full price and for the possibility that local regulators could yet prove prickly.