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Opinion

Mortgage lending collapses

Mortgage lending collapses
February 1, 2011
Mortgage lending collapses

This is not because of any great rise in debt repayments. These are actually lower than they were in late 2008. Instead, it is gross lending that is weak, running at barely one-third what it was at its peak in 2007.

If you're an estate agent, this is frightening. But how worrying is it for the wider economy?

In one sense, it's not. Falling house prices - the likeliest effect of this lack of borrowing - are not disastrous for the economy. For every home-owner who feels worse off as prices fall, there's a potential buyer, or one hoping to trade up, who feels better off.

There are, however, two other problems. First, the inability to get a big mortgage is encouraging some would-be buyers to save more for a deposit. As there's no offsetting dis-saving, the net effect is to exacerbate the squeeze on consumer spending that's already happening because of rising inflation, low wage growth and increasing unemployment.

Secondly, insofar as falling lending is a sign of a reluctance to borrow, it is a signal that households are pessimistic about the future. Last week's survey by GfK/NOP, showing consumer confidence at its lowest level since March 2009, was not just idle jaw-wagging to someone with a clipboard. It is corroborated by real economic activity - or the lack thereof.

There's more bad news in today's figures. Other numbers from the Bank show that non-financial companies bank deposits fell in Q4. This means that, over the last 12 months, their cash holdings have fallen in real terms. This poses the danger that some firms will cease hiring or capital spending in an effort to stop the cash outflow.

So, is there any good news at all?

Three things.

One is that there has historically been a negative correlation between mortgage approvals and stock market returns in the following 12 months. This is because low confidence means low share prices and hence higher expected returns. It's possible, therefore, that the bad news about the economy contained in today's numbers is already embedded in share prices.

Secondly, there's one sense in which confidence is high - in foreigners' sentiment towards gilts. They bought a hefty £8bn of gilts in December, up from £3.1bn in November. This is a form of quantitative easing: foreign buying of gilts has similar effects to Bank of England buying.

Thirdly, a survey by research group Markit shows that manufacturing activity is at its highest level since their records began in 1992. Although the sector accounts for only around one-seventh of GDP, this proportion is now increasing after decades of decline. Maybe those estate agents should retrain as tool-makers.