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Jim Rogers on emerging markets

Jim Rogers on emerging markets
November 18, 2008
Jim Rogers on emerging markets

Mr Rogers, who is originally from Alabama, moved from New York to Singapore in 2007 precisely for these reasons. "I like being in Asia, it's very dynamic, everything works, it's got very high standards," he says. And, of course, Singapore is relatively close to his favourite emerging market - China.

He was quick to spot the potential of China back in the 1980s, when the rest of the world still regarded it as an orthodox Communist state.

"I came across this guy out in the desert, he started out by selling bread to farmers at 5 o'clock in the morning. By the time I across him, he had a a restaurant and a little hotel," he says of a 1988 motorcycle trip to the country. "We were told they were all a load of bloodthirsty Communists, yet here was this guy with this little empire and he was making lots of money. Next time I went back, in 1990, he had two hotels and two restaurants...it was clear to me that there were a lot of stories like this."

Mr Rogers thinks the practical difficulties of investing in China are overplayed. He generally invests in B-shares, which are listed on China's domestic exchanges but open to foreigners, as well as Chinese shares traded in Hong Kong and Singapore. "You cay buy exactly the same share outside of China that you can buy inside it, but at a discount....That discount is going to disappear some day, because some day, you're not going to have all these crazy different classes of shares."

I ask how he squares his enthusiasm for China with his more general and well-publicised loathing of big, interfering governments, given that the Chinese government is both big and interfering. "You could make the argument that the American government is gigantic given what's happened over the past six months; they've taken over gigantic parts of the American economy - likewise in the UK," he counters. "And at least you can still sell short in China, which is more than you can do in many so-callled capitalist countries."

What about the others?

China is the only emerging market in which he has remained invested recently. "I had sold out of all other emerging markets...because there were all these MBAs on airplanes flying round the world looking for new emerging markets. They were all being over-exploited."

He is looking for new entry points. "I'm just sitting and watching because during this period of forced liquidation, some of these emerging markets are going to go down by more than they should simply because they went up more than they should have."

What's on his watchlist? Taiwan is one new candidate. "I've never bought Taiwan before in my life, but there is peace now," he says, referring to the frequent tension between China and its small nationalist neighbour in the past.

He believes that the two Koreas will be unified far sooner than many people think, and points out that despite its vile regime, Myanmar is also starting to open up. "It's got 70 or 80 million disciplined, educated people, lots of natural resources, and it sits right between India and China. What better location is there than that?"

What about Africa, I ask? "There are huge opportunities in Africa. If there were six of me, two of me would be in Africa now. Angola is going to be the largest producer of oil in Africa sometime within the next year or two, overtaking Nigeria. Tanzania is making dramatic changes, too".

One area he's rather less keen on is Russia, believing that the break-up of the old Soviet Union is far from over. He points to what Russians themselves are doing: "They're getting their expertise and capital out of Russia, whereas the Chinese are pouring money and expertise back into China...The Chinese see the opportunity. In Russia, they see the problems," he remarks, concluding that "I wouldn't put anyone into Russia right now."

The politicisation of business in Russia has detracted from one of its great assets - its huge natural resources. That's especially disappointing for Mr Rogers since, alongside emerging markets, his enduring long-term buy is commodities.