I was carping yesterday morning about how the rally so far hadn't been much to write home about, despite my bullish outlook.
That changed dramatically as the session wore on, with particularly impressive surges in the laggardly DAX and FTSE. My long position in the S&P benefited duly and I am sticking with it into today. There is plenty of scope for the rally to continue in the near-term, as we progress further into the seasonally favourable month of April. Moreover, the indices aren't yet overbought on their daily charts. I may add to my index exposure today, perhaps even with one of the European markets.
I am still bullish in my immediate term outlook for copper and Brent. And I think that gold and silver could form an important low at some point in April. However, I am somewhat concerned by the cyclical picture in the US Dollar. A potential turning-point in the Dollar index is approaching round about 9 April. With the greenback weak right now, there’s an obvious danger that the turning-point will be a low, therefore. And this could put the mockers on my projections for stronger commodities. I am sticking to my bullish guns in commodities for now, but I shall be watching the dollar particularly closely around that scheduled turn.