Expect a weak recovery

Today's figures show that real GDP rose by a better-than-expected one per cent in Q3. This is no great cause for celebration. It still leaves GDP 0.1 per cent lower than a year ago, and 3.1 per cent below its 2008Q1 peak. And remember that these numbers are only provisional and subject to revision. The ONS estimates that since 1997 the average revision to its first estimate of quarterly GDP growth has been 0.38 percentage points.

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