We shouldn't be especially surprised, either, that the nation decided to celebrate the end of the Olympic Games with a dose of retail therapy. We knew that retail sales were weak during August, as an uninterrupted splurge of minority sport took precedence over new outfits, so it seems logical that pent-up demand had to go somewhere eventually. And, lo and behold, since the closing ceremony, we have had not one but two decent months of retail sales. It's all about as surprising as this week's news that retail bellwether Next has performed better than its earlier guidance may have suggested it would.
As a seasoned retail watcher, I've long been inclined to take such surveys with a pinch of salt, and not just because - as several veteran retail analysts regularly point out - the statistical basis of some of these surveys is rather shaky. While they provide a useful barometer of the mood of the nation, they are not, in their own right, an especially good guide to its economic health.
On second reading, other measures of the consumer economy still don't look that great. Accompanying the decent retail spending news was the revelation that unsecured consumer lending rose by £1.2bn in September, the largest rise in over five years. But, as Capital Economics notes, that increase could be precisely because household finances are weak, and that households are turning to debt again to maintain the lifestyles to which they have become accustomed as wage growth stagnates.
So, while slowing inflation may be encouraging households to spend, since the CBI's October survey closed mid-month I've been informed by my energy supplier that prices are on the way up, and I know that my rail season ticket is due for a big bounce come January. My own inflation expectations for those genuinely unavoidable expenses are on red alert, and I for one will be surprised if this ebullient consumer mood lasts.
Indeed, a business that's as sentiment-driven as shopping is prone to sudden reversals - a bit like another sentiment-driven beast: the stock market. At least, unlike consumer spending surveys, the stock market is supposedly a forward looking measure - and, judging by the 31 per cent increase in the FTSE All-share General Retailers index this year, the good retail news we've heard this week is all in the price.
