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Victoria underdelivers

TIP UPDATE: Victoria Oil & Gas is having trouble signing up new gas customers in Cameroon, causing us to downgrade our advice to hold
November 2, 2012

Investors needn't pay much attention to these full-year figures from Victoria Oil & Gas (VOG), a gas producer looking to supply local industry in Cameroon's commercial capital, Douala. Instead, the speed of the ramp up in operations since then is of much more importance.

IC TIP: Hold at 2.19p

In July, Victoria successfully began continuous production from its Logbaba field nearby - albeit a few months behind schedule. The company had its first three customers lined up by then, all of which had completed the conversion requirements necessary to accept gas. But, as of 25 October, only one additional customer was accepting gas, reflecting poor initial customer take up of its services.

Indeed, Victoria is only selling about 0.7m cubic feet of gas per day at the moment, much less than initially hoped for because of high upfront conversion costs and shoddy installation by local companies. Yet it has ambitiously maintained its daily target of selling 5m cubic feet by the end of calendar 2012, aiming for at least 10 more thermal customers and a couple of new power customers - potentially setting the company up for another set of disappointing half-year figures next year.

Prior to the results, broker Macquarie forecast EPS for fiscal 2013 of 0.3¢ (a loss per share of 0.3¢ in 2012).

VICTORIA OIL & GAS (VOG)

ORD PRICE:2.19pMARKET VALUE:£59m
TOUCH:2.19-2.22p12-MONTH HIGH:5.05pLOW: 2.15p
DIVIDEND YIELD:nilPE RATIO:na
NET ASSET VALUE:3.5pNET DEBT:8%

Year to 31 MayTurnover ($m)Pre-tax profit ($m)Earnings per share (¢)Dividend per share (p)
20081.73-1.170.70nil
2009nil-42.36-11.91nil
2010nil-6.11-0.60nil
2011nil-4.70-0.26nil
2012nil-7.73-0.33nil
% change----

£1=$1.60