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OPINION

Another false dawn?

Another false dawn?
November 14, 2012
Another false dawn?

While the indices are showing some signs of life this morning, I am not about to get excited. The FTSE has now traded in a range of around 5% for fourteen weeks. There has been false dawn after false dawn, and so I am naturally wary of the latest stirrings. As such, my bias remains towards seeking shorting opportunities for now. I would like to sell the DAX and FTSE on an intraday reversal. I am not looking for spectacular losses from here, merely more of the same shallow choppiness.

for analysis of the European markets

COMMODITIES OUTLOOK

10.27

Viewed on its weekly chart, copper is in a triangular-type set up. There is scope for this contracting range to continue for a while yet, although the next move of significance would logically be a move up towards the top of the triangle. That would certainly fit with my call for a Q4 rally in risky assets, including commodities and shares. However, there is no sign of this beginning yet, so I am still looking for short positions for today, at least, apart from in gold and silver. EURUSD has particular attractions when it comes to shorting right now.

for analysis of some leading commodities and EURUSD.

WALL STREET OUTLOOK

12.23

I am really very encouraged by the current state of mood among my fellow pundits in the US. The gap between bullish and bearish advisors has dropped to just 9.6%, its lowest reading since around the June lows. Such a sombre atmosphere often gives way to healthy gains on Wall Street, as it did back in the early summer. Sentiment is not a precise timing tool, and we need to await the actual turn before trading. However, with daily oversoldness and increasingly depressed sentiment, the pieces of the jigsaw are falling into place.

For now, I remain a mild bear, seeking intraday short positions.

for analysis of some leading US indices.