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Invensys suffers rail delays

RESULTS: A strong performance from Invensys operations division is reassuring, but the engineering group has a lot to do in the second half
November 15, 2012

A weak first half for its rail and domestic appliance controls businesses leaves engineer Invensys (ISYS) with a lot to do in the next six months. Bosses, however, are confident and the operations management unit is covering the shortfall elsewhere.

IC TIP: Hold at 223p

Margins improved and underlying operating profit inched up by 2 per cent at constant currency to £102m, despite a 10 per cent drop in rail profits to £45m. Busy reorganising itself, Network Rail has been slow dishing out contracts, but a significant pick-up is predicted during the second half, and Invensys stands a good chance of winning new orders outside of the framework agreements, too. It couldn’t repeat last year’s big overseas deals in Saudi Arabia and Turkey, either, but rail orders are still up 6 per cent and the Middle East should be a lively source of future income. A partnership with China Southern Rail is also beginning to bear fruit.

With a pick up in demand for appliance controls not expected until next year, much will depend on operations management work. Revenue here rose 7 per cent in the six months and, with margins approaching double-digits, operating profit shot up by 18 per cent to £64m. Software sales grew fastest as Invensys worked off a strong order book built up last year, and prospects in emerging markets look good. Reassuringly, the Chinese nuclear projects are going to the revised plan, too.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch expects full-year adjusted pre-tax profit of £202m and EPS of 20.1p (£141m and 13.4p in 2012).

INVENSYS (ISYS)

ORD PRICE:222pMARKET VALUE:£1.81bn
TOUCH:221-222p12-MONTH HIGH:279pLow:   166p 
DIVIDEND YIELD:2.0%PE RATIO:16
NET ASSET VALUE:58p*NET CASH:£175m

Half-year to 30 SepTurnover (£bn)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
20111.2473.06.901.65
20121.2077.07.601.75
% change-4+5+10+6

Ex-div: 21 Nov

Payment: 21 Dec

*Includes intangible assets of £459m, or 56p per share