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Opinion

The most wonderful time of the year

The most wonderful time of the year
December 17, 2012
The most wonderful time of the year

The DAX has been a much better index to trade this year than the FTSE, recording a multiple of the UK market’s gains over the last eleven and a bit months. And, this situation looks set to persist for what is left of 2012. Having broken to new bull-market highs at the end of last week, the DAX is now well positioned to continue its recent run of success. Its British counterpart, meanwhile, is struggling to break decisively out of the range in which it has stagnated for some time now. In 2013, I expect a good deal more from both markets. For now, I would sooner be speculating on a visit from Santa Klaus, than Father Christmas.

for analysis of some leading European indices.

COMMODITIES OUTLOOK

09.56

Given the weakness in the dollar, it is somewhat surprising that gold, silver and crude oil aren’t enjoying much in the way of upside. None of those commodities have especially appealing charts right now. As before, copper remains the sexiest of the lot in my eyes, and should continue its upwards path before long. Sooner or later, I expect the precious metals to join in, but there is no point jumping the gun. I am more than happy to focus on the red metal for the moment.

for analysis of some leading commodities and EURUSD.

WALL STREET OUTLOOK

13.58

The Nasdaq’s chart continues to spook me somewhat. There is a potential bearish “double top” pattern, which could lead the tech index to suffer a further decline from current levels. I am minded to remain bullish on Wall Street as a whole, however, especially with the most favourable period of the calendar now all but upon us. However, I would sooner be playing the upside I expect via the Dow, and to a lesser extent, via the S&P. I therefore look to buy rallies still.

for analysis of some leading Wall Street indices.