Iron ore's spectacular summer crash - from $145 a tonne in April to $87 in September - sent shockwaves through the mining world and tore shares of heavily exposed junior iron ore producers to shreds. But while spot iron ore prices have since tracked back up to $125 a tonne, shares of junior producers have continued to fall. This suggests there might be scope for a substantial recovery in junior iron ore shares over the coming months - kick-started by an improving Chinese economy.
Shares of the four newest iron ore producers listed in London - African Minerals (AMI), Bellzone Mining (BZM), London Mining (LOND) and Strategic Minerals (SML) - have fallen by 51 per cent on average since the start of the year. They have also collectively declined 4 per cent since the beginning of September, despite iron ore prices rebounding by 44 per cent over the same period.
Risk-averse equity markets rightly punished the four stocks during the iron ore meltdown. But the shares failure to bounce back implies investors don't think the iron ore price increase will last. That, or previous buyers had their fingers burnt and don't want to re-enter the sector given the increased volatility.
Yet there could be another explanation. It has been widely reported in the press that shipping companies are growing concerned about higher than anticipated moisture content of iron ore from West Africa during the rainy season, making the transport of iron ore from countries such as Sierra Leone potentially unsafe. This is reportedly causing loading delays and could raise shipping costs for miners operating in the country, industry sources said. Analysts from broker SP Angel maintain this is more likely to impact African Minerals' less-treated DSO (direct shipping ore) product than London Mining's treated iron ore concentrates. African Minerals is ramping up a new wet processing plant at its main Tonkolili mine so it does not envisage such problems continuing in the future. In any event, the rainy season in Sierra Leone ended in October and won't start up again until May or June.
One company that has managed to avoid this summer's downward trend is Afferro Mining (AFF), which has two large but undeveloped iron ore projects in Cameroon. Its shares are up 111 per cent since June or 53 per cent since the beginning of the year - helped by recent chatter about a potential suitor.
| Company | Share price 3/01/12 (p) | Share price 12/04/12 (p) | Share price 3/09/12 (p) | Share price 12/12/12 (p) | 8-month performance | Year to date | Since 3/09/12 |
| African Minerals | 451 | 550 | 249 | 265 | -52% | -41% | 6% |
| Bellzone Mining | 27 | 29 | 13.5 | 13.5 | -53% | -50% | 0% |
| London Mining | 300 | 273 | 135 | 130 | -52% | -57% | -4% |
| Strategic Minerals | 9 | 9 | 5 | 4 | -56% | -56% | -20% |
| Average | -53% | -51% | -4% |
