This, however, will be largely thanks to Q3's GDP being boosted by an unusually strong July. The monthly data suggest that GDP has been more or less flat since August - and, indeed, since mid-2011.
Although the NIESR's estimate is based upon partial data, it will be consistent with other figures. The British Retail Consortium is likely to report on Tuesday that total retail sales were up by only around 2.5 per cent year on year in December; Wednesday's trade figures are expected to show that net exports are on course to have subtracted from GDP in Q4; and Friday's official manufacturing output data are likely to show that although production rose in November after a terrible October, it did not do so sufficiently to put us on course for growth in Q4 compared with Q3.
However, although the overall economy is faltering, corporate profits aren't doing too badly. On Wednesday, the ONS is likely to say that the net return on capital for non-oil, non-financial companies was around 12 per cent in Q3. Although this is less than the 14.5 per cent cyclical peak reached in 2007, it is well up from the recessionary trough of 9.6 per cent and, indeed, is comparable with the rates seen in the early 2000s. However, profits in manufacturing are much lower than this, which sheds doubt over whether we can see a 'rebalancing' of the economy towards this sector.
A big reason for the weakness of the UK economy is that the eurozone's recession is hitting UK exports and business confidence. Here, though, we might get some good news. Official figures from France and Germany should show that industrial production rose in November, albeit after big falls in October. And retail sales volumes in the euro area overall should have risen in November too - although these will still be some 6 per cent below their January 2008 peak. Although German factory orders on Tuesday might show a month-on-month drop in November, these should remain above the summer's levels, which should raise hopes that output might continue to rise.
None of this, however, will be enough to reduce unemployment. On Tuesday, Eurostat is expected to say that there are almost 19m people out of work in the euro area - 11.8 per cent of the workforce, the highest level since the euro was created.
We'll see on Thursday what the ECB and Bank of England are doing about this, when they make their latest policy announcements. Chances are, both banks will keep policy unchanged.
