Join our community of smart investors
Opinion

SEVEN DAYS: 25 January 2013

SEVEN DAYS: 25 January 2013
January 25, 2013
SEVEN DAYS: 25 January 2013

Mixed UK data

Debt up, jobs down

The fate of the UK economy remains finely balanced with leading data indicators giving off mixed signals. Firstly, the UK's prized AAA credit rating could come under threat according to some commentators after the country's finances worsened again with the budget deficit widening to £15.4bn in December, up from £14.8bn the previous year, prompting the Institute for Fiscal Studies to forecast a £3bn overshoot at the end of the financial year. But in brighter news on Wednesday, the latest employment figures saw 90,000 jobs created over the final quarter of 2012 and unemployment fall by 37,000 to 2.49m or 7.7 per cent of the workforce.

HMV hope

Debt buyout

The ailing music retailer HMV could yet be saved after restructuring specialist Hilco, which has already saved HMV Canada, did a deal to acquire HMV's debt from its lending banks. It has not yet acquired the company, but Hilco's move buys some time for the administrators and shows some appetite for HMV to trade on. Hilco is believed to have received support from record companies who fear the demise of HMV would lead to yet further margin erosion as supermarkets and online players would dominate music sales.

Turning point

Looking upwards?

The global economy has passed a turning point, according to the former head of the Bundesbank, Axel Weber. Talking at the Davos talking shop of global economists, Mr Weber said: "The economy has turned. Most of the markets are picking up", although he did cite continued high levels of unemployment as one notable black spot. But ahead of the World Economic Forum event, the WEF founder warned that the risks to recovery have not gone away saying: "The world economy may still confront a collapse if very negative constellations occur". He cited a continued lack of optimism among governments and business as one of the biggest problems still troubling the global economy.

Agenda setter

Obama inaugurated

President Obama's official inauguration at the beginning of his second term of President of the United States was marked this week with a speech heavy on policy promises which could pitch him into direct confrontation with Republicans, especially over gun control and gay rights. But the most imminent battleground will be on the debt ceiling. A vote scheduled for Wednesday evening on extending the debt ceiling for three months was expected to be passed but this simply sets the scene for a clash down the road on spending cuts which threatens to become increasingly divisive.

Bumi battle

Investigation ends

The boardroom battle at Indonesian miner Bumi rumbles on with further recriminations flying around this week after the board declined to publish the results of an independent review into allegations of impropriety within the business, deeming them to be inconclusive as well as too economically sensitive. Nat Rothschild, the financier who founded Vallar which went on to acquire part of the Bumi businesses from the Barkie family, called on the report to be disclosed as he continues to battle to unseat the current board. Management, who have their own plans to realise value from the business, hit back by pointing out that some of the allegations date back to the period before the Bumi deal was done.

Google grows

Record year

Search engine specialist Google has reported record revenues for 2012 after breaking through the $50bn (£31.5bn) barrier for the first time. Fourth-quarter revenues rose 36 per cent on the previous year to $14.4bn. But the company is facing some challenges, not least of all from the continued shift to mobile data usage as mobile advertising rates tend to offer lower margins than other forms of advertising. Google's hardware business, acquired from Motorola last year, suffered losses and is likely to continue doing so as legacy loss-making products are phased out. Elsewhere in the US technology sector, Microsoft is rumoured to be involved in talks aimed at contributing finance towards a buyout of hardware maker Dell.