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UBM's eventful year

RESULTS: UBM has substantially shifted the focus of its business away from print media towards events and online, and geographically from Europe to Asia, but after a fantastic run the good news story looks priced in.
March 1, 2013

After the sale of its loss-making data services division in a £160m deal announced last month, UBM (UBM) is ever more focused on its core events business which now represents 74 per cent of group profits.

IC TIP: Hold at 751p

On an underlying basis, UBM's pre-tax profits rose 1.4 per cent to £152m, but this conceals some wide disparities between the performances of the group's three businesses. The events division continues to develop larger events and the top 20 shows account for almost half of annual revenues. In fact, UBM now hosts more than 100 shows boasting revenues above £1m, which accounted for 85 per cent of divisional turnover of £413m. There is also a clear focus on emerging markets and this segment posted revenue growth of 15 per cent in the year to account for 43 per cent of the events operation. Overall, events grew operating profits by £9m to £142m, which helped offset a 52 per cent slump in profits in market services which is trying to adapt to the secular moves away from print advertising. PR Newswire turned in a respectable performance, growing profits by 6 per cent to £43.5m on improved margins, largely due to growth in the US, Asia and Latin America.

Guidance is for revenue growth of between 3 and 7 per cent this year, depending on macro conditions, with the events business to continue its "attractive growth", but "more in line with long-term sustainable economic growth rates".

JP Morgan Cazenove forecasts adjusted EPS of 55.9p.

UBM (UBM)
ORD PRICE:751pMARKET VALUE:£1.8bn
TOUCH:750-751p12-MONTH HIGH:795pLOW: 509p
DIVIDEND YIELD:3.6%PE RATIO:17
NET ASSET VALUE:82p*NET DEBT:241%

Year to 31 DecTurnover (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
200888710231.523.8
2009848-3630.924.2
201088911637.325.0
201197210225.426.3
201297712745.326.7
% change+1+25+78+2

Ex-div: 24 Apr

Payment: 28 May

*Includes intangible assets of £903m, or 367p a share