This year's Budget, announced next week, will reveal if the Chancellor has any new tricks up his sleeve to get the UK firing again. Few are hopeful. With his unwavering dedication to austerity, Mr Osborne's current economic policy has the same scratched-record feel to it as predecessor Gordon Brown's oft-repeated claim that he had abolished boom and bust.
At least, unlike Mr Brown, Osborne's turn in the Chancellor's hotseat has an air of realism about it. The UK should live within its economic means, even if now may not be the time to single-mindedly pursue such goals. And however much he is cajoled, there are no simple solutions, especially as, one by one, the low-hanging common-sense policies are picked off. The implementation of a successful tax regime for North Sea oil & gas industry is one of them, and as we discuss in this week's sector focus, that's opened up a new wave of opportunity for investors in this economically crucial industry.
Brown was, to misuse an analogy, more Canute-like in his view of the economy, believing he could turn back the economic tide even as, eventually, the waves of the credit crisis lapped around his feet. Ultimately, though, while economic cycles can be distorted, in the end they cannot be beaten - they are as close to a force of nature as you get in the world of business and finance.
A month into this year's reporting season, and it seems that something akin to cyclicality is starting to take its toll, too - companies have, in the main, been performing well, but earnings outlooks are becoming more muted and the capital investment that could spur further growth remains stuck in the mud. That isn't reflected in punchy valuations and could spell trouble as the market wakes up to the realisation that a powerful earnings upswing could be running out of steam.
That sets the scene for a nasty market fall in the months ahead. Believe it or not, we are still in a long term bear market that will last until 2018, exactly 17.6 years since it began, according to cycles expert Kerry Balenthiran. Markets may now be making new highs, but they will soon be followed by some nasty falls before a new mega bull run, much like the 80s boom, begins. That's a cyclical turning point, as Mr Balenthiran argues in this week's cover feature, which shouldn't be ignored.
