Join our community of smart investors

The Aim 100: 100 to 91

Numbers 100 to 91 of our top 100 Aim companies
April 19, 2013

100. Cupid

Shares in listed online dating agency Cupid (CUP) - which has built up an international network of dating sites since it was founded in 2005 - have plunged in recent weeks, from near 200p at the start of the year to around 77p. On the face of it, that leaves them deep in bargain territory, trading on 4.4 times broker Numis Securities' adjusted 2013 EPS forecast of 17.6p. But there is good reason for a hefty discount to the market - the dating agency has been at the centre of intense press speculation about unsavoury trading practices in the wider online dating world and Cupid's Ukrainian operations in particular. The company has strenuously refuted the allegations and called in a big four audit firm to review the business practice in Ukraine, which will report its findings in June.

The whole furore has spooked some institutional investors and this combined with aggressive short positions in a lightly traded stock has left long-term investors at the mercy of a highly volatile market. However, the numbers still look decent at least – at the end of March Cupid said trading was strong, with revenue up 20 per cent ahead of the same period last year, and reiterated it was in line to hit market expectations for adjusted pre-tax profit of £18.9m for 2013. But the story has long since departed from fundamentals. Only for the brave. Hold. JF

 

99. Range Resources

In most respects, Range Resources (RRL) presents what might be interpreted as a fairly standard profile for a junior oil and gas exploration and production (E&P) company, although the diversity of its E&P catchment - Colombia, Trinidad, the Republic of Georgia, Guatemala, Somalia, and until recently Texas - might present some logistical challenges. The group's principal focus now is on developing its Latin American and Caribbean assets. To that end, Range has renewed and restructured its Trinidad concessions, including the Quinam Wells, the potential commerciality of which has been enhanced by a recent drilling campaign.

During 2012, Range's Lower Forest development programme on the Morne Diablo licence in Trinidad hit record peak production of 1,000 barrels of oil per day, a 120 per cent rise since acquisition. After some delays, Range has also been able to successfully offload its productive assets in Texas for a consideration of $30m (£19.7m). The timing of the disposal was seen as beneficial to the company, and the receipts will be welcome given the number of potential wells to come on-stream within its inventory. In summary, we can expect no shortage of E&P activity through this year from dual-listed Range, but we will need a little more clarity on how quickly the lost production from Texas will be made up. At the time of writing, Range had suspended trading in its shares on Aim, pending clarification in respect of a potential significant transaction. Hold. MR

 

We can expect no shortage of exploration and production activity from Range Resources this year.

 

98. San Leon Energy

After completing its £61m merger with Aim-traded explorer Aurelian Oil & Gas in January, San Leon Energy (SLE) should at least be on a sounder financial footing as it seeks to advance a diverse range of exploration projects. The merger also brought together the companies' unconventional gas assets in Poland, resulting in the combined entity being the largest foreign acreage holder in the country.

The strategic sense of the move was given an indirect vote of confidence recently as San Leon was able to sign a memorandum of understanding with Halliburton Company Germany GmbH to develop gas projects in Poland. This opens up the possibility of a joint venture to explore the potential of San Leon’s Wschowa, Gora, and Rawicz concessions. A formalised tie-up in Poland would represent good news for shareholders given that it improves the risk profile of the development portfolio, while presumably allowing enhanced access to technical expertise and capital drilling equipment.

The company also received a boost following news that the EU's chief scientific adviser has said the evidence gives the go-ahead for extracting shale gas, the energy source at the centre of a prolonged European policy debate. So things are certainly looking up. A number of successful farm-outs have been finalised in the wake of the deal, and hopes are high for the company's interest in the Barryroe oil discovery in the North Celtic Sea Basin. We're keeping the share on hold pending more clarity on group finances. Hold. MR

 

97. H&T

Pawnbroker H&T (HAT) has made decent returns on gold purchasing in recent years, as the price of gold rose sharply, although this side of the business is now a lot less profitable because gold prices have fallen and customers have not been selling as many gold items. Yet, while it will take time to fill the revenue gap, the gold boom was always recognised as having a limited shelf-life.

However, the traditional pawnbroking side of the business continues to expand, not least because people with impaired credit credentials have been shunned by mainstream lenders. To cope with this demand, H&T has been expanding organically and through acquisitions, opening a net 26 stores last year to bring the total to 192. And in a notably fragmented market it also spent £6.2m making six acquisitions.

This makes sense because it is fairly clear that loan demand is unlikely to contract, but the number of loan providers almost certainly will, as tougher regulations take out some of the payday loan providers who do not follow best practice. One side of the business that will continue to decline, however, is the cheque cashing service, which now contributes just 6 per cent of gross profits. This is expected to shrink even further because the PayDay advance product was designed to operate with the benefit of a cheque guarantee card, which the major banks have slowly been phasing out. So further momentum is likely to rest with the traditional pawnbroking business as more new stores start to generate profits. Hold. JC

 

96. Japan Residential Investment Co.

For a property company launched in 2006, Japan Residential Investment Company (JRIC) looks in decent shape. It didn't escape the crash but, thanks to a recapitalisation in June 2010 and various refinancing initiatives, it can now afford to pay generous dividends - the yield is currently 5.8 per cent. With a meaningful upturn in Japanese house prices now a distinct (and novel) possibility, the only problem is that JRIC is also a play on the yen, which the country’s new prime minister, Shinzo Abe, is committed to devaluing.

So-called 'Abenomics' - a huge, radical cocktail of fiscal and monetary stimuli - is designed to end Japan's long period of deflation once and for all. If the policy works, it should boost property values and shrink debts - a powerful combination for landlords. On these hopes, shares in Japanese residential real-estate investment trusts (Reits) have surged 41 per cent since December and now trade on a 35 per cent premium to book value, according to house broker Westhouse Securities. JRIC's shares have only gained 5 per cent over the same period and trade on an 11 per cent discount, leading Westhouse to conclude they are undervalued.

But JRIC has a very different investor base to the Japanese Reits, so this argument cannot be pushed very far. Last year the company generated total returns of 10.8 per cent in yen, much of it in the form of cash dividends. But that worked out as just 2.9 per cent in pounds - a pattern that has continued into the current year. This currency risk, which also affects rental income and therefore dividends, detracts from what is otherwise an appealing investment prospect. Buy. SW

 

95. Asian Plantations

Investment returns in nascent agricultural stocks such as Asian Plantations (PALM) will always come with lengthy lead times. Upfront costs are high, crops can take years to mature and output is weather-dependent. Asian Plantations might not be profitable yet, but it's getting there, and there are several reasons to believe there's significant upside potential for the Malaysian palm oil producer.

In the half year to 30 June (full-year results are expected this month), sales of fresh fruit bunches rose 391 per cent, which translated into a 332 per cent rise in revenue. By the end of 2013, all four estates will be operational, producing roughly 55,000 tonnes of fruit a year. This output will increase as the plantations mature. Added to that, a high-tech vertical steriliser crushing mill is now operational, crushing 60 tonnes an hour. Not only is it processing the plantation's own crop, but the company has a deal to buy 13,000 tonnes a month from seven neighbouring estates, which means it expects to sell more than 45,000 tonnes of crude palm oil to refineries in the 2013 calendar year. This could also result in a 10-fold increase in sales when Asian Plantations reports its full-year results.

Long-term low-cost financing has been secured in the form of medium-term loan notes and up to $15m worth of convertible bonds are to be issued. That means 3.26m new shares will be created, at a premium conversion price of 286p – which means now looks like a good time to buy the stock before it matures. Buy. JB

 

Asian Plantations expects to sell more than 45,000 tonnes of crude palm oil to refineries in the 2013 calendar year.

 

94. Andor Technology

A profits warning last June knocked the stuffing out of Andor Technology (AND) and the Belfast-based scientific digital camera specialist has traded sideways for the past four months. Losing £3m of orders for cameras used in lab equipment was clearly a blow for the Queen's University spin-out and US research institutions just don't have the cash that they did as the federal stimulus budget runs dry. Sales cycles are lengthening in Europe, too, for much the same reason.

That means Andor will rely increasingly on well-funded institutions in China, India and the Middle East for work. And there are signs that money is coming through - a big order from China had Asia Pacific sales up by a third last year, which justifies our optimism. So does recent confirmation of steady sales during the first half and decent demand for new products such as Andor's sCMOS Zyla camera, set to become the "new gold standard 'workhorse' laboratory detector". A cash adjusted forward PE ratio of less than 12 is cheap, too, and a huge discount to foreign rivals. Buy. LW

 

93. Craneware

Craneware (CRW) helps US hospitals rake in cash. Healthcare is a $3 trillion (£1.95 trillion) industry in the US and about a quarter of all registered hospitals there use the company's payment processing and risk-assessment software. Revenue collection has been neglected in the past by hospital managers preoccupied with switching patients' health records on to electronic databases. Uncertainty over the future of 'Obamacare' reforms hasn't helped, either. But with Obama in power for "four more years" and over half US hospitals still using manual revenue-processing systems, there’s a ward overflowing with contracts to win.

Most of Craneware's revenue is subscription-based and customers rarely switch providers, so the company has a good idea of what sales will be like a number of years ahead. It generates lots of cash, too, and was sitting on $28.6m at the end of December, worth about 70p a share. A cash-adjusted forward PE ratio of 16 drops to 14 next year, but that’s what you pay for enviable visibility and double-digit earnings growth. Buy. LW

 

92. Albemarle & Bond (ABM)

It seems strange that some borrowers are happy to pay extortionate interest rates but wouldn't be seen dead in a pawnbroker shop. That's an image that Albemarle & Bond (ABM) has been having some success in breaking down, as witnessed by the continued expansion of its network of stores. But investors will have to be patient because new stores typically take as long as three years before they make a significant contribution to the bottom line, and 40 per cent of Albemarle's stores are less than three years old.

Concentrating on the core business makes sense because the gold buying business - where customers were inclined to sell gold chains and similar adornments when gold prices rocketed - has come back to earth with a thump, not least because customers are running out of gold items to sell. Other revenue streams are now being developed, with the squeeze on disposable income helping to drive retail sales of forfeited items up 40 per cent last year. The group is also looking forward to tighter controls on payday loans, and expects to expand its established unsecured lending services both through its store network and also online. There is also a hefty yield, well covered by after tax earnings, and the shares don't look expensive on eight times 2013-14 forecast earnings. Hold. JC

 

91. EMED Mining

EMED Mining (EMED) has been trying to restart operations at the mid-sized, past-producing Rio Tinto copper mine in Spain since 2008, but the regulatory process in that country is frustratingly slow and the company still doesn't have all the necessary approvals to begin site works for construction. Still, EMED remains hopeful that final approvals will be granted in a matter of months so that construction can begin in the second half of this year.

That means first copper production will have to wait until the second half of 2014 at the earliest, with 2015 the expected date for output to reach commercial rates. However, EMED has sufficient cash reserves and debt financing agreements in place to fully fund the project's development.

Many retail investors seem to expect EMED's share price to soar rapidly once final permits are received, but we're not convinced it will. Granted, there might be a small, short-lived bounce on the day, but we actually see the share price drifting downward after that as there will be a lack of major catalysts and short-term speculators will have headed for the exits. Don't get us wrong - we like the project, but we think there will be a better entry point closer to the date of first production. In the meantime, the shares remain a hold. MA