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IC/Coppock: July brings emerging market warning signals

No IC/Coppock buys in July, but emerging market alarm bells are ringing
September 2, 2013

The IC/Coppock indicator did not give any buy signals in July, despite a decent performance across a number of major markets, not least the FTSE 100 which recovered much of the ground lost in a jittery June. However, there were more sell signals after June's flurry, most notably in India and Indonesia which have been hit particularly hard by the emerging market sell off. Major Asian markets also weakened sharply, with Singapore's Straits Times index giving a sell signal.

The Amsterdam index - which represents many of Europe's largest companies - was the only Western market to register a sell signal. Gold mining indicies continued their precipitous slide, as improving economic confidence saw demand for the safe haven metal continue to fall - the spot gold price touched a new multi-year low of $1199 per ounce towards the end of the month.

Summary table of IC/Coppock indicators - major markets worldwide:

Index/marketJuly average indexJuly indicator*June indicator*May indicator*Signal†
UK Govt. Secs       164.51 -11.5-5.0+1.1WAIT
FT 30     2,650.29 +152.9+138.8+124.9HOLD
FTSE 100    6,517.86 +71.5+66.5+61.7HOLD
FTSE All-Share    3,453.32 +82.0+76.2+70.8HOLD
FT Gold Mines    1,508.63 -187.5-170.3-151.7WAIT
Amsterdam       552.16 +58.8+59.6+57.2SELL
ASX All Ord    4,924.90 +83.4+77.4+72.0HOLD
S&P/ASX 200 Energy  13,212.48 -5.5-21.0-29.7HOLD
Belgium S.E.    9,187.10 +89.1+97.5+98.7WAIT
Dax (Germany)    8,161.83 +126.1+125.1+116.7HOLD
Dow Jones  15,372.75 +81.9+75.2+68.2HOLD
Rep of Ireland (ISEQ)    4,054.59 +131.1+126.8+121.2HOLD
France CAC 40    3,876.56 +99.9+94.3+84.1HOLD
Hang Seng  21,276.99 +66.3+69.4+69.9WAIT
Italy BCI       880.35 +69.2+59.4+43.7HOLD
S. Africa Gold    1,231.72 -190.1-170.9-149.2WAIT
S. Africa Industrial  40,974.41 +136.2+140.8+147.3WAIT
Straits Times    3,209.06 +67.9+73.3+71.9SELL
Tokyo New S.E.    1,187.57 +211.8+174.4+142.4HOLD
Toronto Comp  12,464.41 +25.2+21.2+17.0HOLD
Toronto Gold    1,491.52 -173.6-162.5-147.0WAIT
Sweden OMX    1,205.04 +83.6+81.6+76.2HOLD
FTSE techMARK 100    2,852.91 +127.2+123.9+120.8HOLD
Nasdaq 100    3,029.05 +65.6+62.8+62.2HOLD
*Average index for July 2013. †IC/Coppock indicator. ††Unofficial signal. BUY/SELL = self explanatory; WAIT = you sold at the last sell signal and are now waiting for the next buy signal; HOLD = you bought at the last buy signal and are now awaiting the next sell signal.

For a list of the constituents of the FTSE All-Share sector indices click here

Summary table of IC/Coppock indicators - FTSE All-Share sectors

Index/marketJuly average indexJuly indicator*June indicator*May indicator*Signal†
Mining  14,615.77 -60.0-56.6-54.1WAIT
Oil & Gas    8,111.24 -14.9-17.0-19.7HOLD
Chemicals  10,456.52 +98.2+100.3+110.4WAIT
Constr & Bldg mats    3,838.46 +64.6+60.0+51.7HOLD
Forestry & paper  10,556.71 +295.7+279.6+270.6HOLD
Steel & other metals    1,371.57 -259.1-248.7-239.4WAIT
Aerospace & defence    5,335.75 +164.6+153.7+142.3HOLD
Diversified industrls    3,207.32 +136.4+134.2+129.9HOLD
Electronic & electr eqpt    4,807.13 +129.3+130.1+132.5WAIT
Eng'g & machinery    9,757.18 +141.5+123.7+107.3HOLD
Automobiles & parts    7,748.30 +224.4+193.6+149.8HOLD
H'hold goods textiles    4,575.87 +478.9+366.3+274.6HOLD
Beverages  14,727.82 +152.5+162.6+171.1WAIT
Food producers    7,440.24 +160.2+156.1+149.3HOLD
Health    4,415.66 +107.2+106.3+101.5HOLD
Personal care  20,606.29 +30.0+5.6-3.7HOLD
Pharmaceuticals  11,282.96 +57.7+48.6+39.3HOLD
Tobacco  37,926.34 +32.3+41.0+44.9WAIT
General retailers    2,472.38 +195.1+170.7+153.4HOLD
Leisure & hotels    6,495.86 +205.7+193.0+182.9HOLD
Media ent't    5,863.67 +151.6+141.2+131.3HOLD
Support services    6,003.05 +139.6+134.0+131.8HOLD
Transport    4,045.20 +132.5+109.0+92.7HOLD
Food & drug rtlrs    4,648.13 +59.1+47.6+36.1HOLD
Telecommns svs    3,879.30 +207.0+188.8+171.0HOLD
Electricity    1,004.24 -31.2+68.3+70.3WAIT
Other utilities    7,611.28 +81.8+84.7+88.2WAIT
Banks    4,972.07 +180.7+167.3+158.6HOLD
Insurance    2,088.80 +120.6+118.7+116.6HOLD
Life assurance    6,180.95 +209.6+199.3+187.4HOLD
Investment cos    6,922.64 +93.1+85.6+77.2HOLD
Other finance    5,962.24 +199.6+179.3+160.1HOLD
IT hardware    1,317.48 +270.2+259.3+246.1HOLD
Software & comp svs    1,263.71 +166.3+161.3+157.2HOLD
*Average index for July 2013. †IC/Coppock indicator. ††Unofficial signal. BUY/SELL = self explanatory; WAIT = you sold at the last sell signal and are now waiting for the next buy signal; HOLD = you bought at the last buy signal and are now awaiting the next sell signal.

Summary table of IC/Coppock indicators - emerging & other markets worldwide

Index/marketJuly average indexJuly indicator*June indicator*May indicator*Signal†
Argentina       1,882.20 +194.1+178.6+152.4HOLD
FTSE Aim          711.27 -6.3-13.2-22.4HOLD
Brazil       7,069.91 -45.9-35.1-27.2WAIT
China          2,231.37 -18.0-15.7-15.6WAIT
Greece          838.50 +241.5+235.8+190.7HOLD
India          5,887.87 +79.2+81.1+80.5SELL
Indonesia          4,631.38 +103.0+106.2+99.4SELL
Israel          1,097.64 +47.0+42.6+37.8HOLD
Mexico       1,374.12 +37.9+58.7+73.2WAIT
Philippines          6,575.05 +175.6+182.6+188.0WAIT
Poland       5,924.18 +85.7+86.3+80.1SELL
Portugal          5,554.79 +81.2+71.0+48.0HOLD
Russia       4,897.66 -45.1-45.3-46.0HOLD
South Korea          1,871.77 +9.2+9.8+11.0WAIT
Spain          809.88 +62.9+45.2+23.5HOLD
Switzerland          7,873.14 +145.3+142.3+136.0HOLD
Thailand          1,452.21 +166.8+178.3+183.0WAIT
Turkey      74,351.31 +198.9+216.5+221.4WAIT
Venezuela  1,243,681.00 +1536.0+1386.0+1368.5HOLD
*Average index for July 2013. †IC/Coppock indicator. ††Unofficial signal. BUY/SELL = self explanatory; WAIT = you sold at the last sell signal and are now waiting for the next buy signal; HOLD = you bought at the last buy signal and are now awaiting the next sell signal.

Read previous IC/Coppock indicators here