There were no official buys given by our Coppock indicators for major markets this month - not surprising given the continued surge in stock markets around the world. Fourteen of the 24 markets covered by our data hit new highs late in October, buoyed by the resolution of the US debt debacle, the prospect of continued QE and further signs that China's growth engine is not, as had been feared, running out of steam. Despite that, Hong Kong's Hang Seng - a proxy for China - did give a sell signal, a rapid reversal from last month's unofficial buy on worries that central bankers in the People’s Republic were looking to rein in credit. ‘Seesaw’ has been a much used word to describe the index’s performance over the last month.
Looking beyond the major markets, and there were also signs that the ebullient mood among investors is breathing life back into emerging markets. Brazil, which had been hit hard by tapering fears, gave an official buy signal - partly thanks to the improved data from China, its key trading partner. Back in the UK, and the battered FTSE Oil & Gas sector also gave a buy signal, helped along by the well received news that having beaten profit forecasts BP would be increasing its dividend. The sector has come under pressure to return more cash to shareholders, so BP's move may signal a wider trend across the industry that could reverse its serious underperformance against the FTSE All-Share over the last 12 months.
Major indices
| Index/market | Average index: Oct-13 | October | Indicators: September | August | Signal | Month of last buy signal | Monthly average index then | Index peak since last buy signal | Month of last sell signal | Monthly average index then | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UK Govt. Secs | 162.91 | -25.7 | -23.0 | -17.9 | WAIT | Aug 11* | 163.26 | 177.08 | (24/07/12) | 12/12 | 175.55 |
| FT 30 | 2,730.58 | +169.1 | +165.3 | +160.9 | HOLD | Jul 12 | 1,952.99 | 2,820.70 | (31/10/13) | 11/11 | 1,861.57 |
| FTSE 100 | 6,571.95 | +74.5 | +73.9 | +72.8 | HOLD | Jul 12 | 5,636.46 | 6,840.27 | (22/05/13) | 11/11 | 5,271.31 |
| FTSE All-Share | 3,502.99 | +86.5 | +85.8 | +84.2 | HOLD | Aug 12 | 3,010.36 | 3,609.71 | (30/10/13) | 11/11 | 2,737.66 |
| FT Gold Mines | 1,521.06 | -234.7 | -216.9 | -199.6 | WAIT | Oct 12 | 3,213.21 | 3,330.73 | (01/10/12) | 12/12 | 2,982.77 |
| Amsterdam | 579.74 | +60.1 | +57.5 | +57.8 | BUY* | Oct 13* | 579.74 | 593.57 | (30/10/13) | 07/13 | 552.16 |
| ASX All Ord | 5,285.20 | +94.2 | +92.7 | +87.7 | HOLD | Jul 12 | 4,181.70 | 5,437.30 | (28/10/13) | 11/11 | 4,285.50 |
| S&P/ASX 200 Energy | 13,913.94 | +28.2 | +18.5 | +4.6 | HOLD | May 13 | 13,183.19 | 14,371.48 | (27/09/13) | 04/13 | 12,770.42 |
| Belgium S.E. | 10,300.31 | +82.2 | +80.4 | +84.3 | BUY* | Oct 13* | 10,300.31 | 10,559.13 | (31/10/13) | 06/13 | 9,017.25 |
| Dax (Germany) | 8,800.49 | +116.8 | +117.6 | +123.3 | WAIT | May 13 | 8,317.43 | 9,033.92 | (31/10/13) | 08/13 | 8,332.46 |
| Dow Jones | 15,289.29 | +85.3 | +84.5 | +84.3 | HOLD | Mar 13* | 14,418.26 | 15,680.35 | (29/10/13) | 01/13 | 13,615.32 |
| Rep of Ireland (ISEQ) | 4,315.79 | +155.1 | +146.9 | +140.5 | HOLD | Mar 13* | 3,883.38 | 4,405.90 | (31/10/13) | 02/13 | 3,641.55 |
| France CAC 40 | 4,228.01 | +108.5 | +102.7 | +101.9 | HOLD | Jul 12 | 3,199.55 | 4,299.89 | (31/10/13) | 11/11 | 3,201.85 |
| Hang Seng | 23,096.68 | +59.7 | +63.8 | +63.4 | SELL | Sep 13* | 22,903.98 | 23,822.06 | (30/01/13) | 10/13 | 23,096.68 |
| Italy BCI | 1,020.68 | +88.3 | +78.8 | +77.2 | HOLD | Aug 12 | 1,129.42 | 1,150.23 | (29/04/11) | 11/11 | 996.82 |
| S. Africa Gold | 1,246.40 | -232.4 | -220.0 | -205.8 | WAIT | Jun 12 | 2,524.83 | 2,668.53 | (06/06/12) | 12/12 | 2,295.53 |
| S. Africa Industrial | 43,473.10 | +123.8 | +123.4 | +127.4 | BUY* | Oct 13* | 43,473.10 | 44,487.24 | (30/10/13) | 06/13 | 39,919.33 |
| Straits Times | 3,181.75 | +43.7 | +50.6 | +59.0 | WAIT | Jul 12 | 2,987.49 | 3,454.37 | (22/05/13) | 07/13 | 3,209.06 |
| Tokyo New S.E. | 1,188.89 | +285.2 | +262.7 | +236.8 | HOLD | Aug 12 | 748.73 | 1,276.03 | (22/05/13) | 12/12 | 746.00 |
| Toronto Comp | 13,050.52 | +29.0 | +27.5 | +27.3 | HOLD | Aug 12 | 11,921.00 | 13,455.33 | (30/10/13) | 11/11 | 12,383.20 |
| Toronto Gold | 1,514.80 | -205.9 | -190.7 | -177.9 | WAIT | Oct 12 | 2,842.54 | 2,952.41 | (05/10/12) | 12/12 | 2,697.49 |
| Sweden OMX | 1,271.81 | +92.2 | +88.1 | +85.9 | HOLD | Jun 12 | 982.67 | 1,300.23 | (22/10/13) | 12/12 | 1,044.48 |
| FTSE techMARK 100 | 2,979.19 | +129.9 | +129.4 | +128.7 | HOLD | July 12* | 2,283.04 | 3,051.53 | (30/10/13) | 11/11 | 1,934.67 |
| Nasdaq 100 | 3,291.95 | +75.8 | +67.2 | +66.5 | HOLD | May 13* | 2,981.19 | 3,391.75 | (29/10/13) | 01/13 | 2,736.90 |
| *Unofficial signal. BUY/SELL = self explanatory; WAIT = you sold at the last sell signal and are now waiting the next buy signal; HOLD = you bought at the last buy signal and are now waiting for the next sell signal. | |||||||||||
For a list of the constituents of the FTSE All-Share sector indices click here
FTSE sectors
| IC/Coppock Indicator | Index | Oct* | Sep* | Aug* | Signal† |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mining | 16,064.97 | -57.2 | -57.0 | -58.7 | SELL†† |
| Oil & Gas | 7,826.87 | -16.8 | -17.5 | -17.1 | BUY |
| Chemicals | 10,738.93 | +86.5 | +87.8 | +93.7 | WAIT |
| Constr & Bldg mats | 4,350.79 | +101.5 | +86.1 | +76.0 | HOLD |
| Forestry & paper | 12,700.45 | +357.3 | +350.4 | +327.7 | HOLD |
| Steel & other metals | 1,595.99 | -267.0 | -266.0 | -264.8 | WAIT |
| Aerospace & defence | 5,301.50 | +182.0 | +179.0 | +174.1 | HOLD |
| Diversified industrls | 3,412.72 | +145.1 | +142.2 | +138.7 | HOLD |
| Electronic & electr eqpt | 5,135.27 | +134.2 | +132.1 | +133.0 | BUY†† |
| Eng'g & machinery | 10,677.39 | +177.8 | +167.2 | +154.9 | HOLD |
| Automobiles & parts | 8,470.48 | +295.9 | +267.4 | +248.7 | HOLD |
| H'hold goods textiles | 5,365.27 | +639.4 | +597.0 | +549.6 | HOLD |
| Beverages | 14,488.50 | +117.5 | +129.9 | +141.1 | WAIT |
| Food producers | 6,941.82 | +130.8 | +144.0 | +154.0 | WAIT |
| Health | 4,465.40 | +102.3 | +103.0 | +107.3 | WAIT |
| Personal care | 21,658.22 | +120.8 | +90.3 | +51.0 | HOLD |
| Pharmaceuticals | 10,904.95 | +73.4 | +69.4 | +63.9 | HOLD |
| Tobacco | 36,561.52 | +15.8 | +18.7 | +22.5 | WAIT |
| General retailers | 2,599.87 | +230.4 | +225.5 | +210.5 | HOLD |
| Leisure & hotels | 6,538.80 | +211.0 | +212.4 | +212.4 | SELL |
| Media ent't | 6,338.30 | +172.6 | +164.5 | +157.6 | HOLD |
| Support services | 6,155.34 | +135.7 | +138.3 | +140.3 | WAIT |
| Transport | 4,668.39 | +204.4 | +183.9 | +159.4 | HOLD |
| Food & drug rtlrs | 4,818.46 | +79.1 | +72.2 | +68.1 | HOLD |
| Telecommns svs | 4,147.79 | +249.9 | +231.4 | +221.4 | HOLD |
| Electricity | 9,267.95 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -12.9 | HOLD |
| Other utilities | 7,530.25 | +65.7 | +72.4 | +77.5 | WAIT |
| Banks | 4,872.54 | +171.1 | +182.5 | +186.4 | WAIT |
| Insurance | 2,043.64 | +94.6 | +102.4 | +113.1 | WAIT |
| Life assurance | 6,624.51 | +212.5 | +211.0 | +213.2 | BUY†† |
| Investment cos | 7,051.71 | +100.1 | +99.4 | +97.2 | HOLD |
| Other finance | 6,232.49 | +217.9 | +215.4 | +211.2 | HOLD |
| IT hardware | 1,461.06 | +258.1 | +261.5 | +262.2 | WAIT |
| Software & comp svs | 1,229.74 | +157.5 | +163.9 | +167.1 | WAIT |
| *Average index for October 2013. †IC/Coppock indicator. ††Unofficial signal. BUY/SELL = self explanatory; WAIT = you sold at the last sell signal and are now waiting for the next buy signal; HOLD = you bought at the last buy signal and are now awaiting the next sell signal. | |||||
FTSE emerging markets
| IC/Coppock Indicator | Index | Oct* | Sep* | Aug* | Signal† |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 17,633.38 | +352.3 | +282.8 | +226.5 | HOLD |
| FTSE Aim | 792.49 | +28.3 | +16.4 | +4.7 | HOLD |
| Brazil | 54,171.88 | -57.1 | -58.0 | -54.6 | BUY |
| China | 2,420.14 | +1.7 | -4.1 | -14.3 | HOLD |
| Greece | 1,130.10 | +241.1 | +247.5 | +253.1 | WAIT |
| India | 6,050.07 | +51.9 | +59.0 | +67.7 | WAIT |
| Indonesia | 4,498.37 | +68.4 | +79.5 | +92.4 | WAIT |
| Israel | 1,164.25 | +50.7 | +50.9 | +49.6 | SELL |
| Mexico | 11,149.24 | -17.7 | +2.2 | +19.0 | WAIT |
| Philippines | 6,491.44 | +142.3 | +152.3 | +165.0 | WAIT |
| Poland | 52,455.60 | +90.0 | +86.8 | +88.7 | BUY†† |
| Portugal | 6,182.14 | +94.0 | +93.5 | +93.0 | HOLD |
| Russia | 16,359.39 | -37.0 | -44.1 | -46.0 | HOLD |
| South Korea | 2,027.19 | +8.4 | +5.5 | +5.9 | BUY†† |
| Spain | 989.81 | +96.7 | +81.6 | +77.3 | HOLD |
| Switzerland | 8,052.46 | +138.1 | +142.1 | +144.1 | WAIT |
| Thailand | 1,447.04 | +113.0 | +128.9 | +148.3 | WAIT |
| Turkey | 77,087.00 | +122.9 | +144.5 | +172.2 | WAIT |
| Venezuela | 1,966,829.00 | +1918.4 | +1780.3 | +1638.5 | HOLD |
| *Average index for October 2013. †IC/Coppock indicator. ††Unofficial signal. BUY/SELL = self explanatory; WAIT = you sold at the last sell signal and are now waiting for the next buy signal; HOLD = you bought at the last buy signal and are now awaiting the next sell signal. | |||||
Read previous IC/Coppock indicators here
