With the benefit of hindsight, our decision to tip shares in Tethys Petroleum (TPL) last summer (Buy, 43p, 11 Jul 2013) was not well timed. Russia's incursion into Ukraine this year has understandably alarmed investors in companies operating in former Soviet nations, and its shares reflect their unease.
Tethys' oil and gas assets in Kazakhstan are nevertheless chugging along productively enough. The company nearly broke even for the first time in 2013 if you strip out a $7.1m (£4.3m) write-down on discontinued Uzbekistan assets. Moreover, Tethys plans to triple gas production from now until 2015 by drilling cheap, shallow wells, the first of which (drilled this year) have been encouragingly successful. To help fund the work programme, the company expects to receive $75m in mid-2014 from the sale of 50 per cent of its Kazakh assets to a Chinese group, adding to its already sizeable cash pile.
Administrative costs remain remarkably high at nearly 50 per cent of revenues, which is a concern. In our view, however, Tethys is primarily an exploration play backed by some productive assets. The real catalysts for a major share price re-rating will come from the drilling of 'super-giant' targets in Tajikistan in 2015, or the 400m barrel Klymene oil prospect later this year.
TETHYS PETROLEUM (TPL) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORD PRICE: | 27p | MARKET VALUE: | £ 81m | |
| TOUCH: | 27-28p | 12-MONTH HIGH: | 65p | LOW: 26p |
| DIVIDEND YIELD: | nil | PE RATIO: | na | |
| NET ASSET VALUE: | 65¢ | NET CASH: | $21.3m | |
| Year to 31 Dec | Turnover ($m) | Pre-tax profit ($m) | Earnings per share (¢) | Dividend per share (¢) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 8.6 | -21.5 | -20.0 | nil |
| 2010 | 14.7 | -26.2 | -15.0 | nil |
| 2011 | 22.9 | -28.9 | -10.0 | nil |
| 2012 | 33.6 | -20.2 | -7.0 | nil |
| 2013 | 36.9 | -7.5 | -3.0 | nil |
| % change | +10 | - | - | - |
£1=$1.67 | ||||
