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Confident Coppock

More bullish signals from Coppock - but can it last?
March 12, 2015

February's Coppock readings proved the most bullish in a long time, once again prompted by renewed optimism that the worst of Europe's problems are behind it now that full-blown QE has arrived.

Following on from a flurry of cancelled sell signals (which we formerly described as unofficial buys) on European indices in January, which came in the wake of the European Central Bank's confirmation of its new QE programme, the system delivered another six cancelled sells and one official buy. Among these were the three major UK indices, including the FTSE 100 which hit a new record high last week.

As we have previously noted, the Coppock system has hardly covered itself in glory of late when timing exit rather than entry points - it's also been suggesting investors should be out of US markets, even as they continue to power to new highs. But our back-testing has suggested that following the system's ins and outs will deliver long-term outperformance even if it misses some short-term upside. The market's jitters this week come as a timely reminder that complacency can be dangerous.

Meanwhile, as sovereign bond buying under eurozone QE started this week, Coppock's readings on fixed income remain firmly bullish. Anyone doubting the system's usefulness should remember that its bond buy signals came at a time when most observers were suggesting the asset class was headed for a heavy fall.

February's Coppock signals

BuysSells
Austria ATXNone
Cancelled sellsCancelled buys
Australia ASX 200None
Mexico IPC Bolsa
Germany DAX 30 Performance
Eurostoxx Stoxx Europe 50
France CAC 40
UK FTSE 100
UK FTSE 250
UK FTSE All-Share

Latest Coppock readings and signals

North AmericaNovDecJanFebLatest signalLatest signal (date)
SPX37.1735.9932.3830.76SELLMar-14
DJINDUS24.725.0522.621.86SELLJan-15
NASDAQ 10057.0154.7550.2949.18SELLSep-14
NASDAQ COMP47.7244.8640.0738.74SELLApr-14
S&P/TSX33.6130.4926.924.55SELLOct-14
Asia Pacific, Africa
BANGKOK S.E.T. - PRICE INDEX16.9919.8224.3228.35BUYJun-14
FTSE BURSA MALAYSIA KLCI - PRICE INDEX10.447.14.221.94SELLMay-14
FTSE CHINA B 35 - PRICE INDEX-0.866.0312.8520.98BUYAug-14
HANG SENG - PRICE INDEX11.111.1511.312.67CANCEL SELLOct-14
KOREA SE COMPOSITE (KOSPI) - PRICE INDEX3.942.040.36-0.26SELLOct-14
IDX COMPOSITE - PRICE INDEX23.41226.79930.40833.902CANCEL SELLJun-14
STRAITS TIMES INDEX L - PRICE INDEX6.859.1210.9312CANCEL SELLJul-14
TAIWAN SE WEIGHED TAIEX - PRICE INDEX23.2922.6521.9621.45SELLSep-14
TOPIX - PRICE INDEX25.8326.727.330.58CANCEL SELLDec-14
ASX 2001310.99.911.3CANCEL SELL*Feb-14
NZ 5019.0718.5219.4821.28CANCEL SELLJan-15
JSE TOP 4036.8432.3828.6726.48SELLSep-14
SENSEX67.9269.1772.2872.64CANCEL SELLMar-14
South America
MEXICO IPC (BOLSA) - PRICE INDEX12.3613.4212.2712.76CANCEL SELL*Feb-14
BRAZIL BOVESPA - TOT RETURN IND11.4910.577.476.55SELLDec-14
MSCI EM LATIN AMERICA U$ - PRICE INDEX-4.261-7.172-12.006-16.55CANCEL BUYNov-14
Europe/UK
AEX INDEX (AEX) - PRICE INDEX24.0922.622.925.75CANCEL SELLJan-15
ATHEX COMPOSITE - PRICE INDEX23.855.25-14.95-27.52SELLJun-14
ATX - AUSTRIAN TRADED INDEX - PRICE INDEX-9.04-14.67-19.36-17.98BUY*Feb-14
BEL 20 - PRICE INDEX34.432.5432.8634.88CANCEL SELLJan-15
DAX 30 PERFORMANCE - PRICE INDEX28.1424.4523.2925.14SELLJun-14
EURO STOXX 50 - PRICE INDEX26.39822.09219.84120.581CANCEL SELL*Feb-14
FRANCE CAC 40 - PRICE INDEX18.1214.1412.614.4CANCEL SELL*Feb-14
FTSE 100 - PRICE INDEX6.284.393.333.78CANCEL SELL*Feb-14
FTSE 250 - PRICE INDEX14.611.759.129.31CANCEL SELL*Feb-14
FTSE ALL SHARE - PRICE INDEX7.655.584.244.62CANCEL SELL*Feb-14
FTSE MIB INDEX - PRICE INDEX41.2831.7225.4822.37SELLJul-14
IBEX 35 - PRICE INDEX45.2537.5930.9727.25SELLSep-14
IRELAND SE GENERAL (ISEQ) - PRICE INDEX30.2929.3529.7333.81CANCEL SELL*Jan-15
OMX STOCKHOLM 30 (OMXS30) - PRICE INDEX27.3326.8428.1832.25CANCEL SELLJan-15
OSLO EXCHANGE ALL SHARE - TOT RETURN IND40.0134.1228.824.99SELLSep-14
PORTUGAL PSI-20 - PRICE INDEX0.54-11.88-22.34-28.66SELLJun-14
RUSSIAN MICEX INDEX - PRICE INDEX3.180.945.613.19CANCEL SELLJan-15
SWISS MARKET (SMI) - PRICE INDEX20.9520.4416.8416.56SELLDec-14