Emerging market specialist Aberdeen Asset Management – whose result we’ve covered in this week’s issue – saw net outflows in funds under management of £11.4bn last year. That nervousness among its clients over difficulty in assessing the likely trajectory of emerging market indices is reflected in recent Coppock indicators – April saw sell signals on Thailand’s Bangkok SET Index and Indonesia’s IDX, the latter falling sharply over the month after its largest constituents reported worse than expected first quarter earnings.
Australia’s ASX also flashed red, a seemingly prescient signal ahead of heavy selling at the start of May on the back of weak reports from banking and consumer shares – a sign, perhaps, of continuing economic struggles down under. However, emerging market traffic has not been all one way of late – April saw a cancelled sell on Brazil’s Ibovespa as improving commodity prices saw the resource-dominated index climb over 10 per cent over the months. Such sentiment has not yet reversed March’s sell on the similarly commodity-centric FTSE 100, but the FTSE All share has shrugged off election uncertainty to give an unofficial buy.
Notably April also brought the first sign of weakness from the bond market, with a sell on the liquid corporate bond index – heading into May, and it seems likely that gilt indices may follow suit soon.
April's New Coppock Signals
| Buys | Sells |
| None | Thailand Bangkok SET Index |
| Indonesia IDX Composite Index | |
| Australia ASX 200 Index | |
| Belgium Bel 20 Index | |
| Swizterland Swiss Market Index | |
| IBOXX Liquid £ Corp Long-dated | |
| Cancelled sells | Cancelled buys |
| Brazil Ibovespa Index | None |
| UK FTSE All Share Index |
April's Coppock readings:
| North America | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | Latest signal | Latest signal (date) |
| SPX | 32.38 | 30.76 | 29.3 | 27.2 | SELL | Mar-14 |
| DJINDUS | 22.6 | 21.86 | 21.43 | 20.32 | SELL | Jan-15 |
| NASDAQ 100 | 50.29 | 49.18 | 47.58 | 45.12 | SELL | Sep-14 |
| NASDAQ COMP | 40.07 | 38.74 | 37.91 | 36.03 | SELL | Apr-14 |
| S&P/TSX | 26.9 | 24.55 | 21.04 | 18.13 | SELL | Oct-14 |
| Asia Pacific, Africa | ||||||
| BANGKOK S.E.T. - PRICE INDEX | 24.32 | 28.35 | 29.02 | 28.75 | SELL* | Apr-15 |
| FTSE BURSA MALAYSIA KLCI - PRICE INDEX | 4.22 | 1.94 | 0.7 | -0.79 | SELL | May-14 |
| FTSE CHINA B 35 - PRICE INDEX | 12.85 | 20.98 | 29.94 | 53.12 | BUY | Aug-14 |
| HANG SENG - PRICE INDEX | 11.3 | 12.67 | 14.88 | 20.44 | CANCEL SELL | Oct-14 |
| KOREA SE COMPOSITE (KOSPI) - PRICE INDEX | 0.36 | -0.26 | 0.94 | 2.99 | CANCEL SELL | Mar-15 |
| IDX COMPOSITE - PRICE INDEX | 30.408 | 33.902 | 36.042 | 32.96 | SELL* | Apr-15 |
| STRAITS TIMES INDEX L - PRICE INDEX | 10.93 | 12 | 13.75 | 14.95 | CANCEL SELL | Jul-14 |
| TAIWAN SE WEIGHED TAIEX - PRICE INDEX | 21.96 | 21.45 | 21.24 | 21.02 | SELL | Sep-14 |
| TOPIX - PRICE INDEX | 27.3 | 30.58 | 36.26 | 42.15 | CANCEL SELL | Dec-14 |
| ASX 200 | 9.9 | 11.3 | 12.7 | 12.6 | SELL* | Apr-15 |
| NZ 50 | 19.48 | 21.28 | 21.18 | 20.66 | SELL | Mar-15 |
| JSE TOP 40 | 28.67 | 26.48 | 23.7 | 21.98 | SELL | Sep-14 |
| SENSEX | 72.28 | 72.64 | 70.97 | 65.24 | SELL | Mar-15 |
| South America | ||||||
| MEXICO IPC (BOLSA) - PRICE INDEX | 12.27 | 12.76 | 13.15 | 14.72 | CANCEL SELL | Feb-14 |
| BRAZIL BOVESPA - TOT RETURN IND | 7.47 | 6.55 | 6.07 | 9.57 | CANCEL SELL* | Apr-15 |
| MSCI EM LATIN AMERICA U$ - PRICE INDEX | -12.006 | -16.55 | -21.962 | -24.238 | CANCEL BUY | Nov-14 |
| Europe/UK | ||||||
| AEX INDEX (AEX) - PRICE INDEX | 22.9 | 25.75 | 29.87 | 32.57 | CANCEL SELL | Jan-15 |
| ATHEX COMPOSITE - PRICE INDEX | -14.95 | -27.52 | -40.58 | -50.57 | SELL | Jun-14 |
| ATX - AUSTRIAN TRADED INDEX - PRICE INDEX | -19.36 | -17.98 | -16.31 | -13.34 | BUY | Feb-14 |
| BEL 20 - PRICE INDEX | 32.86 | 34.88 | 37.42 | 37.27 | SELL* | Apr-15 |
| DAX 30 PERFORMANCE - PRICE INDEX | 23.29 | 25.14 | 29.64 | 30.53 | CANCEL SELL | Jan-15 |
| EURO STOXX 50 - PRICE INDEX | 19.841 | 20.581 | 23.032 | 23.478 | CANCEL SELL | Feb-15 |
| FRANCE CAC 40 - PRICE INDEX | 12.6 | 14.4 | 17.22 | 18.95 | CANCEL SELL | Feb-15 |
| FTSE 100 - PRICE INDEX | 3.33 | 3.78 | 3.48 | 3.42 | SELL | Mar-15 |
| FTSE 250 - PRICE INDEX | 9.12 | 9.31 | 10.17 | 10.64 | CANCEL SELL | Feb-15 |
| FTSE ALL SHARE - PRICE INDEX | 4.24 | 4.62 | 4.49 | 4.5 | CANCEL SELL* | Apr-15 |
| FTSE MIB INDEX - PRICE INDEX | 25.48 | 22.37 | 20.91 | 19.35 | SELL | Jul-14 |
| IBEX 35 - PRICE INDEX | 30.97 | 27.25 | 25.11 | 22.35 | SELL | Sep-14 |
| IRELAND SE GENERAL (ISEQ) - PRICE INDEX | 29.73 | 33.81 | 37.91 | 39.99 | CANCEL SELL | Jan-15 |
| OMX STOCKHOLM 30 (OMXS30) - PRICE INDEX | 28.18 | 32.25 | 35.74 | 36.29 | CANCEL SELL | Jan-15 |
| OSLO EXCHANGE ALL SHARE - TOT RETURN IND | 28.8 | 24.99 | 21.52 | 19.05 | SELL | Sep-14 |
| PORTUGAL PSI-20 - PRICE INDEX | -22.34 | -28.66 | -31.99 | -34.01 | SELL | Jun-14 |
| RUSSIAN MICEX INDEX - PRICE INDEX | 5.6 | 13.19 | 18.03 | 22.05 | CANCEL SELL | Jan-15 |
| SWISS MARKET (SMI) - PRICE INDEX | 16.84 | 16.56 | 16.78 | 15.74 | SELL* | Apr-15 |
*New signals
