May’s Coppock signals once again demonstrated indecision and a general lack of commitment towards equity markets around the world, with a number of recent sell and unofficial buy signals quickly reversed - an increasingly familiar pattern as markets flirt with record highs and get to grips with the diverging monetary policies of the world’s largest economies. But the ramifications of that monetary tug-of-war are being felt most keenly in gilt markets, and that’s reflected by Coppock this month. J-Bonds, Treasuries and Bunds all flashed sell in May as the long-standing bull run came to an abrupt halt. Coppock’s buy signals on gilts have proved well timed previously – unlike sell signals on equity markets. Alongside the quick reversal on the liquid corporate bond index we follow, that track record suggests the sell indicator on gilts may too prove a blip rather than a clear indication that the bond bubble has finally burst.
May's new Coppock signals
Buys | Sells |
None | Singapore Straits Times Index |
Mexico IPC Bolsa Index | |
Brazil Ibovespa Index | |
Barclays US Aggregate Bond | |
US 10-Year Treasury | |
Japan 10-Year Treasury | |
Germany 10-Year Treasury | |
Cancelled sells | Cancelled buys |
Australia ASX 200 | None |
Belgium Bel 20 Index | |
UK FTSE 100 Index | |
Switzerland Swiss Market Index | |
IBOXX Liquid £ Corp Long-dated |
May's Coppock Readings
North America | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Latest signal | Latest signal (date) |
SPX | 30.76 | 29.3 | 27.2 | 25.34 | SELL | Mar-14 |
DJINDUS | 21.86 | 21.43 | 20.32 | 19.39 | SELL | Jan-15 |
NASDAQ 100 | 49.18 | 47.58 | 45.12 | 43.92 | SELL | Sep-14 |
NASDAQ COMP | 38.74 | 37.91 | 36.03 | 35.4 | SELL | Apr-14 |
S&P/TSX | 24.55 | 21.04 | 18.13 | 14.42 | SELL | Oct-14 |
Asia Pacific, Africa | ||||||
BANGKOK S.E.T. - PRICE INDEX | 28.35 | 29.02 | 28.75 | 25.53 | SELL | Apr-15 |
FTSE BURSA MALAYSIA KLCI - PRICE INDEX | 1.94 | 0.7 | -0.79 | -3.51 | SELL | May-14 |
FTSE CHINA B 35 - PRICE INDEX | 20.98 | 29.94 | 53.12 | 77.15 | BUY | Aug-14 |
HANG SENG - PRICE INDEX | 12.67 | 14.88 | 20.44 | 24.78 | CANCEL SELL | Oct-14 |
KOREA SE COMPOSITE (KOSPI) - PRICE INDEX | -0.26 | 0.94 | 2.99 | 4.54 | CANCEL SELL | Mar-15 |
IDX COMPOSITE - PRICE INDEX | 33.902 | 36.042 | 32.96 | 30.091 | SELL | Apr-15 |
STRAITS TIMES INDEX L - PRICE INDEX | 12 | 13.75 | 14.95 | 14.44 | SELL* | May-15 |
TAIWAN SE WEIGHED TAIEX - PRICE INDEX | 21.45 | 21.24 | 21.02 | 19.36 | SELL | Sep-14 |
TOPIX - PRICE INDEX | 30.58 | 36.26 | 42.15 | 48.64 | CANCEL SELL | Dec-14 |
ASX 200 | 11.3 | 12.7 | 12.6 | 12.8 | CANCEL SELL* | May-15 |
NZ 50 | 21.28 | 21.18 | 20.66 | 20.23 | SELL | Mar-15 |
JSE TOP 40 | 26.48 | 23.7 | 21.98 | 18.72 | SELL | Sep-14 |
SENSEX | 72.64 | 70.97 | 65.24 | 58.89 | SELL | Mar-15 |
South America | ||||||
MEXICO IPC (BOLSA) - PRICE INDEX | 12.76 | 13.15 | 14.72 | 14.6 | SELL* | May-15 |
BRAZIL BOVESPA - TOT RETURN IND | 6.55 | 6.07 | 9.57 | 8.05 | SELL* | May-15 |
MSCI EM LATIN AMERICA U$ - PRICE INDEX | -16.55 | -21.962 | -24.238 | -30.194 | CANCEL BUY | Nov-14 |
Europe/UK | ||||||
AEX INDEX (AEX) - PRICE INDEX | 25.75 | 29.87 | 32.57 | 34.97 | CANCEL SELL | Jan-15 |
ATHEX COMPOSITE - PRICE INDEX | -27.52 | -40.58 | -50.57 | -58.21 | SELL | Jun-14 |
ATX - AUSTRIAN TRADED INDEX - PRICE INDEX | -17.98 | -16.31 | -13.34 | -9.8 | BUY | Feb-14 |
BEL 20 - PRICE INDEX | 34.88 | 37.42 | 37.27 | 37.53 | CANCEL SELL* | May-15 |
DAX 30 PERFORMANCE - PRICE INDEX | 25.14 | 29.64 | 30.53 | 31.98 | CANCEL SELL | Jan-15 |
EURO STOXX 50 - PRICE INDEX | 20.581 | 23.032 | 23.478 | 23.606 | CANCEL SELL | Feb-15 |
FRANCE CAC 40 - PRICE INDEX | 14.4 | 17.22 | 18.95 | 20.88 | CANCEL SELL | Feb-15 |
FTSE 100 - PRICE INDEX | 3.78 | 3.48 | 3.42 | 4.4 | CANCEL SELL* | May-15 |
FTSE 250 - PRICE INDEX | 9.31 | 10.17 | 10.64 | 13.65 | CANCEL SELL | Feb-15 |
FTSE ALL SHARE - PRICE INDEX | 4.62 | 4.49 | 4.5 | 5.82 | CANCEL SELL | Apr-15 |
FTSE MIB INDEX - PRICE INDEX | 22.37 | 20.91 | 19.35 | 18.36 | SELL | Jul-14 |
IBEX 35 - PRICE INDEX | 27.25 | 25.11 | 22.35 | 19.1 | SELL | Sep-14 |
IRELAND SE GENERAL (ISEQ) - PRICE INDEX | 33.81 | 37.91 | 39.99 | 44.95 | CANCEL SELL | Jan-15 |
OMX STOCKHOLM 30 (OMXS30) - PRICE INDEX | 32.25 | 35.74 | 36.29 | 37.59 | CANCEL SELL | Jan-15 |
OSLO EXCHANGE ALL SHARE - TOT RETURN IND | 24.99 | 21.52 | 19.05 | 16.54 | SELL | Sep-14 |
PORTUGAL PSI-20 - PRICE INDEX | -28.66 | -31.99 | -34.01 | -35.97 | SELL | Jun-14 |
RUSSIAN MICEX INDEX - PRICE INDEX | 13.19 | 18.03 | 22.05 | 24.2 | CANCEL SELL | Jan-15 |
SWISS MARKET (SMI) - PRICE INDEX | 16.56 | 16.78 | 15.74 | 15.82 | CANCEL SELL* | May-15 |