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Bond bloodbath?

Has Coppock called the top for gilt markets?
June 4, 2015

May’s Coppock signals once again demonstrated indecision and a general lack of commitment towards equity markets around the world, with a number of recent sell and unofficial buy signals quickly reversed - an increasingly familiar pattern as markets flirt with record highs and get to grips with the diverging monetary policies of the world’s largest economies. But the ramifications of that monetary tug-of-war are being felt most keenly in gilt markets, and that’s reflected by Coppock this month. J-Bonds, Treasuries and Bunds all flashed sell in May as the long-standing bull run came to an abrupt halt. Coppock’s buy signals on gilts have proved well timed previously – unlike sell signals on equity markets. Alongside the quick reversal on the liquid corporate bond index we follow, that track record suggests the sell indicator on gilts may too prove a blip rather than a clear indication that the bond bubble has finally burst.

May's new Coppock signals

BuysSells
NoneSingapore Straits Times Index
 Mexico IPC Bolsa Index
 Brazil Ibovespa Index
 Barclays US Aggregate Bond
 US 10-Year Treasury
 Japan 10-Year Treasury
 Germany 10-Year Treasury
Cancelled sellsCancelled buys
Australia ASX 200None
Belgium Bel 20 Index 
UK FTSE 100 Index 
Switzerland Swiss Market Index 
IBOXX Liquid £ Corp Long-dated 

May's Coppock Readings

North AmericaFebMar AprMayLatest signalLatest signal (date)
SPX30.7629.327.225.34SELLMar-14
DJINDUS21.8621.4320.3219.39SELLJan-15
NASDAQ 10049.1847.5845.1243.92SELLSep-14
NASDAQ COMP38.7437.9136.0335.4SELLApr-14
S&P/TSX24.5521.0418.1314.42SELLOct-14
Asia Pacific, Africa
BANGKOK S.E.T. - PRICE INDEX28.3529.0228.7525.53SELLApr-15
FTSE BURSA MALAYSIA KLCI - PRICE INDEX1.940.7-0.79-3.51SELLMay-14
FTSE CHINA B 35 - PRICE INDEX20.9829.9453.1277.15BUYAug-14
HANG SENG - PRICE INDEX12.6714.8820.4424.78CANCEL SELLOct-14
KOREA SE COMPOSITE (KOSPI) - PRICE INDEX-0.260.942.994.54CANCEL SELLMar-15
IDX COMPOSITE - PRICE INDEX33.90236.04232.9630.091SELLApr-15
STRAITS TIMES INDEX L - PRICE INDEX1213.7514.9514.44SELL*May-15
TAIWAN SE WEIGHED TAIEX - PRICE INDEX21.4521.2421.0219.36SELLSep-14
TOPIX - PRICE INDEX30.5836.2642.1548.64CANCEL SELLDec-14
ASX 20011.312.712.612.8CANCEL SELL*May-15
NZ 5021.2821.1820.6620.23SELLMar-15
JSE TOP 4026.4823.721.9818.72SELLSep-14
SENSEX72.6470.9765.2458.89SELLMar-15
South America
MEXICO IPC (BOLSA) - PRICE INDEX12.7613.1514.7214.6SELL*May-15
BRAZIL BOVESPA - TOT RETURN IND6.556.079.578.05SELL*May-15
MSCI EM LATIN AMERICA U$ - PRICE INDEX-16.55-21.962-24.238-30.194CANCEL BUYNov-14
Europe/UK
AEX INDEX (AEX) - PRICE INDEX25.7529.8732.5734.97CANCEL SELLJan-15
ATHEX COMPOSITE - PRICE INDEX-27.52-40.58-50.57-58.21SELLJun-14
ATX - AUSTRIAN TRADED INDEX - PRICE INDEX-17.98-16.31-13.34-9.8BUYFeb-14
BEL 20 - PRICE INDEX34.8837.4237.2737.53CANCEL SELL*May-15
DAX 30 PERFORMANCE - PRICE INDEX25.1429.6430.5331.98CANCEL SELLJan-15
EURO STOXX 50 - PRICE INDEX20.58123.03223.47823.606CANCEL SELLFeb-15
FRANCE CAC 40 - PRICE INDEX14.417.2218.9520.88CANCEL SELLFeb-15
FTSE 100 - PRICE INDEX3.783.483.424.4CANCEL SELL*May-15
FTSE 250 - PRICE INDEX9.3110.1710.6413.65CANCEL SELLFeb-15
FTSE ALL SHARE - PRICE INDEX4.624.494.55.82CANCEL SELLApr-15
FTSE MIB INDEX - PRICE INDEX22.3720.9119.3518.36SELLJul-14
IBEX 35 - PRICE INDEX27.2525.1122.3519.1SELLSep-14
IRELAND SE GENERAL (ISEQ) - PRICE INDEX33.8137.9139.9944.95CANCEL SELLJan-15
OMX STOCKHOLM 30 (OMXS30) - PRICE INDEX32.2535.7436.2937.59CANCEL SELLJan-15
OSLO EXCHANGE ALL SHARE - TOT RETURN IND24.9921.5219.0516.54SELLSep-14
PORTUGAL PSI-20 - PRICE INDEX-28.66-31.99-34.01-35.97SELLJun-14
RUSSIAN MICEX INDEX - PRICE INDEX13.1918.0322.0524.2CANCEL SELLJan-15
SWISS MARKET (SMI) - PRICE INDEX16.5616.7815.7415.82CANCEL SELL*May-15