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GSK boosted by Novartis products

The timing of GSK's asset swap with Novartis has provided a welcome boost to the group's top line.
July 31, 2015

The 2015 financial year is one of change for drugs giant GlaxoSmithKline (GSK). Sales are up, but core operating profits are down and EPS is expected to decline "at a high teen percentage rate" before returning to growth next year. That reflects dilution from last year's high-profile asset swap with Swiss rival Novartis and ongoing pricing pressure as several cheaper generic copies of GSK products flood the market. Analysts at Deutsche Bank have trimmed their earnings forecasts again, and now expect EPS of 73.8p this year, compared with 94.2p in 2014.

IC TIP: Hold at 1,367p

Understanding how GSK grew interim sales by 4 per cent to £11.5bn comes down to the timing of the Novartis deal. The transaction completed on 2 March 2015, and so GSK's results include four months of turnover from the former Novartis vaccine and consumer healthcare divisions. The boost is clear: on a pro-forma basis vaccine sales fell 1 per cent in the first half, but including Novartis they rose 11 per cent. Similarly, consumer healthcare sales rose 7 per cent pro-forma but a whopping 37 per cent including the former Novartis products.

It's also evident why GSK scrapped plans to sell off its HIV business. That division - unaffected by the Novartis deal - managed to grow first-half sales by a massive 51 per cent to just over £1bn.

But the size of the generic challenge was equally made clear by a 7 per cent fall in pharmaceutical revenues after a particularly rough second quarter. Sales figures from what GSK calls "established products" were depressing too: turnover there fell 13 per cent to £1.3bn in the first half, with sales in the US crashing 31 per cent after a 64 per cent plunge in sales of prescription omega-3 fish oil drug Lovaza.

Yet chief executive Andrew Witty is trying to put investors' minds at rest. Approximately 40 new drugs are said to be in mid- to late-stage development, and half of those could be on the market or filed for regulatory approval by 2020. A formal update on the company's future product pipeline is scheduled for 3 November 2015.

GLAXOSMITHKLINE (GSK)
ORD PRICE:1,367pMARKET VALUE:£66.5bn
TOUCH:1,366-1,367p12-MONTH HIGH:1,645pLOW: 1,297p
DIVIDEND YIELD:5.9%PE RATIO:7
NET ASSET VALUE:140p*NET DEBT:91%

Half-year to 30 JuneTurnover (£bn)Pre-tax profit (£bn)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
201411.21.927.519.0
201511.510.117119.0
% change+3+433+521-

Ex-div: 13 Aug

Payment: 1 Oct

*Includes intangible assets of £21.7bn. or 446p a share