Coppock's August readings reflected the sombre market mood over the summer, with a flurry of sell signals across European markets. A repeat of the pattern seen over the past year, the flip-flopping nature of the signals is hardly a helpful guide in attempting to time the market - raising the issue of whether we should consider cancelled sell (or unofficial buys) as trustworthy buying signals. Nor does it strengthen the case for the veracity of Coppock's sell signals - US indices have continued to climb higher since giving sells, in some cases such as the S&P 500 well over a year ago.
However, this week's rather unexpected rally aside, the FTSE has performed weakly, as Coppock signalled it may in December 2013 - albeit early. If we look at Coppock in whole rather than part, it's fair to suggest that, with no change to the signals whatsoever in September and understandably fragile confidence being displayed on markets at the moment, investors should consider a more bearish stance. With most equity markets still in Coppock’s positive phase, it’s unlikely that we’ll see any buy signals for some time.
August & September’s Coppock signals**
Buy | Sell |
---|---|
S&P GCSI Agriculture Total Return Index | Netherlands AEX |
Belgium Bel 20 | |
France CAC 40 Index | |
Italy FTSE MIB Index | |
Germany DAX 30 Index | |
Switzerland Swiss Market Index | |
Euro Stoxx 50 Index | |
Japan Topix index | |
Cancelled sells | Cancelled buys |
None | None |
September's Coppock readings
North America | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Latest signal | Latest signal (date) |
SPX | 23.11 | 21.01 | 16.69 | 11.9 | SELL | Mar-14 |
DJINDUS | 17.86 | 15.99 | 11.74 | 7.46 | SELL | Feb-15 |
NASDAQ 100 | 41.75 | 40.06 | 35.28 | 29.62 | SELL | Sep-14 |
NASDAQ COMP | 34.91 | 34.35 | 30.59 | 25.68 | SELL | Apr-14 |
S&P/TSX | 9.67 | 5.48 | 0.65 | -4.59 | SELL | Oct-14 |
Asia Pacific, Africa | ||||||
BANGKOK S.E.T. - PRICE INDEX | 21.83 | 16.1 | 8.39 | 0.75 | SELL | Apr-15 |
FTSE BURSA MALAYSIA KLCI - PRICE INDEX | -6.65 | -8.92 | -12.85 | -15.93 | SELL | May-14 |
FTSE CHINA B 35 - PRICE INDEX | 87.8 | 86.69 | 76.54 | 65.59 | SELL | Jul-15 |
HANG SENG - PRICE INDEX | 25.63 | 23.19 | 17.37 | 8.89 | SELL | Jul-15 |
KOREA SE COMPOSITE (KOSPI) - PRICE INDEX | 4.91 | 4.39 | 2.73 | 1.41 | SELL | Jul-15 |
IDX COMPOSITE - PRICE INDEX | 23.98 | 17.221 | 9.001 | -0.702 | SELL | Apr-15 |
STRAITS TIMES INDEX L - PRICE INDEX | 12.04 | 8.66 | 2.82 | -4.41 | SELL | May-15 |
TAIWAN SE WEIGHED TAIEX - PRICE INDEX | 16.76 | 11.21 | 4.55 | -1.24 | SELL | Sep-14 |
TOPIX - PRICE INDEX | 53.46 | 57.66 | 55.62 | 49.3 | SELL* | Aug-15 |
ASX 200 | 10 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 1.5 | SELL | Jun-15 |
NZ 50 | 18.35 | 17.99 | 16.08 | 12.86 | SELL | Mar-15 |
JSE TOP 40 | 15.56 | 13.34 | 9.82 | 7.09 | SELL | Sep-14 |
SENSEX | 52.73 | 45.63 | 35.73 | 26 | SELL | Mar-15 |
South America | ||||||
MEXICO IPC (BOLSA) - PRICE INDEX | 14.2 | 12.73 | 10.26 | 6.8 | SELL | May-15 |
BRAZIL BOVESPA - TOT RETURN IND | 5.66 | 1.31 | -4.03 | -10.6 | SELL | May-15 |
MSCI EM LATIN AMERICA U$ - PRICE INDEX | -35.273 | -42.168 | -49.464 | -57.281 | CANCEL BUY | Nov-14 |
Europe/UK | ||||||
AEX INDEX (AEX) - PRICE INDEX | 35.75 | 37.64 | 34.06 | 29.3 | SELL* | Aug-15 |
ATHEX COMPOSITE - PRICE INDEX | -63.18 | -65.83 | -71.4 | -72.6 | SELL | Jun-14 |
ATX - AUSTRIAN TRADED INDEX - PRICE INDEX | -7.35 | -3.63 | -2.05 | -1.14 | BUY | Feb-14 |
BEL 20 - PRICE INDEX | 36.61 | 36.93 | 33.76 | 29.98 | SELL* | Aug-15 |
DAX 30 PERFORMANCE - PRICE INDEX | 32.36 | 33.24 | 30.13 | 25.9 | SELL* | Aug-15 |
EURO STOXX 50 - PRICE INDEX | 22.6 | 23.222 | 19.824 | 16.015 | SELL* | Aug-15 |
FRANCE CAC 40 - PRICE INDEX | 21.19 | 23.18 | 21.64 | 19.95 | SELL* | Aug-15 |
FTSE 100 - PRICE INDEX | 2.37 | 1.28 | -1.4 | -4.63 | SELL | Jun-15 |
FTSE 250 - PRICE INDEX | 15.86 | 17.61 | 18.71 | 18.71 | CANCEL SELL | Feb-15 |
FTSE ALL SHARE - PRICE INDEX | 4.52 | 3.92 | 1.9 | -0.75 | SELL | Jun-15 |
FTSE MIB INDEX - PRICE INDEX | 16.64 | 17.74 | 16.17 | 15.41 | SELL* | Aug-15 |
IBEX 35 - PRICE INDEX | 15.32 | 13.23 | 8.22 | 2.54 | SELL | Sep-14 |
IRELAND SE GENERAL (ISEQ) - PRICE INDEX | 48.84 | 54.34 | 58.93 | 61.67 | CANCEL SELL | Jan-15 |
OMX STOCKHOLM 30 (OMXS30) - PRICE INDEX | 35.87 | 35.51 | 32.18 | 26.62 | SELL | Jun-15 |
OSLO EXCHANGE ALL SHARE - TOT RETURN IND | 13.32 | 10.6 | 5.65 | 1.9 | SELL | Sep-14 |
PORTUGAL PSI-20 - PRICE INDEX | -36.34 | -34.31 | -33.36 | -30.21 | BUY | Jul-15 |
RUSSIAN MICEX INDEX - PRICE INDEX | 29.57 | 32.14 | 34.8 | 34.95 | CANCEL SELL | Jan-15 |
SWISS MARKET (SMI) - PRICE INDEX | 14.16 | 14.47 | 12.18 | 9.23 | SELL* | Aug-15 |
*New signals