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Coppock hits the buffers

How helpful is Coppock in timing the market?
October 9, 2015

Coppock's August readings reflected the sombre market mood over the summer, with a flurry of sell signals across European markets. A repeat of the pattern seen over the past year, the flip-flopping nature of the signals is hardly a helpful guide in attempting to time the market - raising the issue of whether we should consider cancelled sell (or unofficial buys) as trustworthy buying signals. Nor does it strengthen the case for the veracity of Coppock's sell signals - US indices have continued to climb higher since giving sells, in some cases such as the S&P 500 well over a year ago.

However, this week's rather unexpected rally aside, the FTSE has performed weakly, as Coppock signalled it may in December 2013 - albeit early. If we look at Coppock in whole rather than part, it's fair to suggest that, with no change to the signals whatsoever in September and understandably fragile confidence being displayed on markets at the moment, investors should consider a more bearish stance. With most equity markets still in Coppock’s positive phase, it’s unlikely that we’ll see any buy signals for some time.

 August & September’s Coppock signals**

BuySell
S&P GCSI Agriculture Total Return IndexNetherlands AEX
Belgium Bel 20
France CAC 40 Index
Italy FTSE MIB Index
Germany DAX 30 Index
Switzerland Swiss Market Index
Euro Stoxx 50 Index
Japan Topix index
Cancelled sellsCancelled buys
NoneNone
**There were no new Coppock signals in September

September's Coppock readings

North AmericaJunJulAugSepLatest signalLatest signal (date)
SPX23.1121.0116.6911.9SELLMar-14
DJINDUS17.8615.9911.747.46SELLFeb-15
NASDAQ 10041.7540.0635.2829.62SELLSep-14
NASDAQ COMP34.9134.3530.5925.68SELLApr-14
S&P/TSX9.675.480.65-4.59SELLOct-14
Asia Pacific, Africa
BANGKOK S.E.T. - PRICE INDEX21.8316.18.390.75SELLApr-15
FTSE BURSA MALAYSIA KLCI - PRICE INDEX-6.65-8.92-12.85-15.93SELLMay-14
FTSE CHINA B 35 - PRICE INDEX87.886.6976.5465.59SELLJul-15
HANG SENG - PRICE INDEX25.6323.1917.378.89SELLJul-15
KOREA SE COMPOSITE (KOSPI) - PRICE INDEX4.914.392.731.41SELLJul-15
IDX COMPOSITE - PRICE INDEX23.9817.2219.001-0.702SELLApr-15
STRAITS TIMES INDEX L - PRICE INDEX12.048.662.82-4.41SELLMay-15
TAIWAN SE WEIGHED TAIEX - PRICE INDEX16.7611.214.55-1.24SELLSep-14
TOPIX - PRICE INDEX53.4657.6655.6249.3SELL*Aug-15
ASX 200109.26.61.5SELLJun-15
NZ 5018.3517.9916.0812.86SELLMar-15
JSE TOP 4015.5613.349.827.09SELLSep-14
SENSEX52.7345.6335.7326SELLMar-15
South America
MEXICO IPC (BOLSA) - PRICE INDEX14.212.7310.266.8SELLMay-15
BRAZIL BOVESPA - TOT RETURN IND5.661.31-4.03-10.6SELLMay-15
MSCI EM LATIN AMERICA U$ - PRICE INDEX-35.273-42.168-49.464-57.281CANCEL BUYNov-14
Europe/UK
AEX INDEX (AEX) - PRICE INDEX35.7537.6434.0629.3SELL*Aug-15
ATHEX COMPOSITE - PRICE INDEX-63.18-65.83-71.4-72.6SELLJun-14
ATX - AUSTRIAN TRADED INDEX - PRICE INDEX-7.35-3.63-2.05-1.14BUYFeb-14
BEL 20 - PRICE INDEX36.6136.9333.7629.98SELL*Aug-15
DAX 30 PERFORMANCE - PRICE INDEX32.3633.2430.1325.9SELL*Aug-15
EURO STOXX 50 - PRICE INDEX22.623.22219.82416.015SELL*Aug-15
FRANCE CAC 40 - PRICE INDEX21.1923.1821.6419.95SELL*Aug-15
FTSE 100 - PRICE INDEX2.371.28-1.4-4.63SELLJun-15
FTSE 250 - PRICE INDEX15.8617.6118.7118.71CANCEL SELLFeb-15
FTSE ALL SHARE - PRICE INDEX4.523.921.9-0.75SELLJun-15
FTSE MIB INDEX - PRICE INDEX16.6417.7416.1715.41SELL*Aug-15
IBEX 35 - PRICE INDEX15.3213.238.222.54SELLSep-14
IRELAND SE GENERAL (ISEQ) - PRICE INDEX48.8454.3458.9361.67CANCEL SELLJan-15
OMX STOCKHOLM 30 (OMXS30) - PRICE INDEX35.8735.5132.1826.62SELLJun-15
OSLO EXCHANGE ALL SHARE - TOT RETURN IND13.3210.65.651.9SELLSep-14
PORTUGAL PSI-20 - PRICE INDEX-36.34-34.31-33.36-30.21BUYJul-15
RUSSIAN MICEX INDEX - PRICE INDEX29.5732.1434.834.95CANCEL SELLJan-15
SWISS MARKET (SMI) - PRICE INDEX14.1614.4712.189.23SELL*Aug-15

*New signals