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Opinion

One last thing Santa

One last thing Santa
July 30, 2014
One last thing Santa

But what about the outlook for my pound next year? If I have investments abroad, should I hedge them? If I am planning to invest in assets denominated in another currency, is this a good idea? And if I have no assets but must budget for next year's expenditure, how much will I be able to afford? With these tricky questions in mind we look at the charts of the pound against four important currencies to try to help out.

Against the US dollar, Cable as it's called because it was the first to be traded via a transatlantic telephone line, today's starting point is neither dear nor cheap. Since floating in the 1970s it has not been a good store of value, but then neither has the US dollar. The exchange rate has been relatively more stable since the 1990s (bar the meltdown in 2008 because of the UK economy's reliance on financial services) and should continue to be so next year. Rather like the decade starting 1993, since late 2009 an uneasy truce between $1.4000 and $1.7000 has reigned - and will probably continue. Room for manoeuvre and the highly sensitive to FX fluctuations might want to hedge.

 

 

Against the euro, where data only goes back to 1999, it too is at a halfway house, not horribly cheap as in 2008 nor sky high which it was when the euro first started circulating. The trend since almost hitting parity has been to a stronger pound and, after another few months of hesitation at current levels, should resume rallying to the psychological level at €1.5000; above €1.5500 will probably be hard to sustain.

 

 

Against the Japanese yen, which suffered badly in 2013-14 as its government did its best to help exporters, the exchange rate at 185.00 yen per pound is exactly in the middle of the massive band that has dominated for two decades. Allow for another year's worth of random moves roughly between 165.00 and 200.00 - potentially - and 8 per cent swing either side around the central rate.

 

 

Finally, against the Australian dollar, not widely traded in international banking circles but probably of interest to many of our readers. The Australian dollar was created and decimalised in 1966, pegged at A$2 per £1. Allowed to float freely outside of the sterling block in 1983, it has suffered a rollercoaster ride since. From a record high for the pound at A$3.0200 in 2001, sterling slumped to its weakest ever at A$1.4375, making holidays and homes there unaffordable for poms. Like the others it's sort of back to the middle of the range, but could strengthen in the second half of next year to A$2.4500.

 

 

A word of warning: emerging market currencies, which have weakened considerably this year, probably have further to go in 2016.