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Currency woes for Diageo

The impact of currencies weighed on the drinks major's numbers and its emerging markets growth engine is not quite firing on all cylinders
January 29, 2016

The pitfalls of operating in emerging markets certainly show up in global distiller and brewer Diageo 's (DGE) numbers. The top line showed signs of life on a constant currency basis, and excluding M&A, with organic net sales up 2 per cent. But having exposure to countries such as Nigeria and Russia - which have seen substantial weakness in the naira and rouble in the past year - meant reported profits fell. Management expects exchange rates to hit net sales by roughly £260m this financial year.

IC TIP: Hold at 1860p

Developing economies are supposed to be the growth engine behind Diageo, but constant currency net sales in Africa rose just 3 per cent, as the 15 per cent growth in beer turnover was offset by a decline in scotch. Asia's sales growth was also meagre at 2 per cent on the same basis but a plus point here was the 18 per cent rise in underlying operating profit. Chief financial officer Kathryn Mikells said pricing across Asia has been good meaning margins had "improved strongly" thanks largely to performance in India and its increased stake in United Spirits. Meanwhile, revenues in its largest market, the US, fell by 2 per cent.

Pre-tax profits were helped by exceptional gains on disposals in Jamaica, Singapore and Malaysia. Analysts at Canaccord Genuity expect adjusted EPS of 90.2p for the full financial year compared with 88.4p in FY 2015.

 

DIAGEO (DGE)
ORD PRICE:1,860pMARKET VALUE:£ 46.8bn
TOUCH:1,859p-1,860p12-MONTH HIGH:2,055pLOW: 1,593p
DIVIDEND YIELD:3.1%PE RATIO:19
NET ASSET VALUE:323p*NET DEBT:96%

Half-year to 31 DecTurnover (£bn)Pre-tax profit (£bn)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
20148.721.6452.321.50
20158.271.7856.122.60
% change-5+9+7+5

Ex-div:25 Feb

Payment:07 Apr

*Includes intangible assets of £11.3bn or 450p a share